Adds a script to run sensitivities

scripts/plot_results.py

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ def power_by_carrier(n):
         n.generators.carrier).sum().T 
 
     if not n.storage_units.empty:
-        sto = n.storage_units_t.p.T.groupby(
+        sto = n.storage_units_t.p.T.clip(lower=0).groupby(
             n.storage_units.carrier).sum().T
         p_by_carrier = pd.concat([p_by_carrier, sto], axis=1)
 

sensitivity-script.py

@@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
+import os
+import re
+import itertools
+import shutil
+
+# Path to the base config file
+base_config_file = "config.yml"
+backup_config_file = "config_backup.yml"
+
+# Backup the original config file to restore it later
+shutil.copyfile(base_config_file, backup_config_file)
+
+# Define the variables and their possible values
+variable_ranges = {
+    'fuel_cost_year': [2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023],
+    'load_growth': [0, 1],
+    'total_demand': [136e6, 185e6],
+    'atb_scenario': ['Moderate']  # 'Conservative', 'Advanced'
+}
+
+# Create a string of all the rules that must be forced to run
+# NOTE: add retrieve_costs when also modifying atb scenarios
+forcerun = "retrieve_fuel_costs add_electricity"
+
+# Generate all possible combinations of the variables
+variable_combinations = list(itertools.product(
+    variable_ranges['fuel_cost_year'],
+    variable_ranges['load_growth'],
+    variable_ranges['total_demand'],
+    variable_ranges['atb_scenario']
+))
+
+# ATB scenarios must be handled differently because sub-parameters can't be
+# passed to snakemake in the command line
+atb_scenario_targets = [
+    "scenario: \'Moderate\'",
+    "scenario: \'Conservative\'",
+    "scenario: \'Advanced\'"
+]
+
+
+def replace_strings_in_config(file_path, target_strings, new_value):
+    """
+    This function looks for a list of target strings and replaces them with a
+    new value (from ChatGPT).
+    """
+    with open(file_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as file:
+        content = file.read()
+
+    pattern = '|'.join(map(re.escape, target_strings))
+    updated_content = re.sub(pattern, new_value, content)
+
+    with open(file_path, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as file:
+        file.write(updated_content)
+
+
+run_no = 0
+for idx, (fuel_cost_year,
+          load_growth,
+          total_demand,
+          atb_scenario) in enumerate(variable_combinations):
+
+    # Name the scenario
+    scenario = (
+        f"cost-{fuel_cost_year}_"
+        f"growth-{load_growth}_"
+        f"demand-{total_demand:.2E}_"
+        f"atb-{atb_scenario}"
+    )
+
+    # Combine all the top-line config variables
+    config = (
+        f"time_res=1 "
+        f"fuel_cost_year={fuel_cost_year} "
+        f"load_growth={load_growth} "
+        f"total_demand={total_demand} "
+        f"scenario={scenario}"
+    )
+
+    # Modify the config file to update the ATB scenario.
+    # This is disabled because the model won't run --
+    # alternate scenarios don't exist for nuclear
+    # atb_scenario_text = f"scenario: \'{atb_scenario}\'"
+    # replace_strings_in_config(
+    #    base_config_file,
+    #    atb_scenario_targets,
+    #    atb_scenario_text
+    # )
+
+    # Run Snakemake, passing the new variables as configs
+    print(f"Running Snakemake with config {run_no} and the following command:")
+    print(f"snakemake --cores=4 --forcerun {forcerun} --config {config}")
+    os.system(f"snakemake --cores=4 --forcerun {forcerun} --config {config}")
+    run_no += 1
+
+    # for debugging:
+    # if run_no == 1: break
+
+# Restore the original base config after running all scenarios
+shutil.copyfile(backup_config_file, base_config_file)
+os.remove(backup_config_file)
+print("Restored the original config file.")

sensitivity.md

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+# Variables to change for sensitivities
+
+- **Coal and methane prices.** Fuel prices are modeled as 12 values from a historical year, derived from this PUDL database: https://data.catalyst.coop/pudl/core_eia923__monthly_fuel_receipts_costs.
+- **ATB cases.** The model uses the 2022 ATB, which has three scenarios: "Moderate", "Conservative", and "Advanced". We only use the "Moderate" case, here.
+- **Demand growth.** This will be modeled as either 0.00 or 1.00.
+- **Exports.** There's no toggle or setting for this -- rather the starting load determines whether or not the model is matching the in-state load or the in-state generation. For no export the starting value should be 136e6; for export it should be 185e6.
+
+| Parameter   | Variable in `config.yml`| Scripts                                       | Values                           |
+|-------------|-------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|
+|Fuel prices  |`fuel_cost_year`         |`retrieve_fuel_prices.py`, `add_electricity.py`|2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023|
+|ATB cases    |`scenario`               |`retrieve_costs.py`                            |"Conservative", "Advanced"        |
+|Demand growth|`load_growth`            |`add_electricity.py`                           |0.00, 1.00                        |
+|Exports      |`total_demand`           |`add_electricity.py`                           |136e6, 185e6                      |
+
+Total possibilities = 6x2x2x2 = 48
+
+The order in the snakemake workflow of the rules we need to modify:
+
+| Rule | Script                  |
+|------|-------------------------|
+|3     |`retrieve_costs.py`      |
+|4     |`retrieve_fuel_prices.py`|
+|11    |`add_electricity.py`     |
+
+# Remove ATB cases
+
+There are no conservative or advanced cases for nuclear in the ATB, only moderate. As a result the model won't run for cases other than moderate, and we did not include a sensitivity around capital cost in the model.