IN estimation model
India is made of 5 different power grids:
- Northern,
- Western,
- Southern,
- Eastern,
- North-eastern.
Each zone on the map corresponds to a power grid. For each grid, production data is collected from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). The data published includes conventional thermal production, nuclear, hydro, solar, wind and aggregated other renewables (unknown).
The data is published at a daily granularity which does not meet our technical requirements for a hourly or higher granularity. The goal of this model is to estimate hourly production values from available data.
For all zones, hourly consumption is available. As production and consumption are balanced, we can estimate hourly production following this principle:
production + net exchanges = consumption
Consumption and exchanges data will be used to create a production profile. The model developed has 2 cases depending on the availability of consumption data.
1. Estimation with consumption data available
When consumption is available in the database, we use the consumption data profile to estimate dispatchable production modes (coal, hydro, gas). Using demand and exchanges, an hourly profile is computed for the given time frame. This will then be applied to daily production values to estimate the hourly variation of the production modes mentioned above. The figure below illustrates how data is estimated for 2023-04-01.
Figure 1: Estimation with consumption data available
2. Estimation without consumption data
In this case, we will compute an average hourly profile using consumption and exchanges data from dates where consumption is available. Once this average hourly profile is generated, we apply the same methodology as above. Hourly production is estimated for coal, hydro and gas. The results for 2021-12-01 are presented in the figure below.
Figure 2: Estimation without consumption data available
In the case of IN-WE, consumption is available since 2020-01-01. For the other zones, consumption is only available since 2023-01-19.