Prediction Markets Tapp Concept

Overview:

A Twitter-based prediction market where users can bet on outcomes using a Tlink-integrated tapp. When User A tweets a prediction, tBot replies with a clickable Tlink that renders a card for others to join and bet. Each bet costs $1, and the distribution of the betting pool includes rewards for the original poster and subsequent sharers of the prediction.

Prediction NFT Tapp Ownership:

• Each prediction is a Prediction NFT tapp, and the owner of the tapp is the user who originally mentions @tBot.
• The NFT represents the prediction itself and tracks the bets, shares, and final outcomes associated with that prediction.

Tweet to Initiate Prediction:

1. User Flow:

   • User A tweets a prediction, for example, "BTC will pass $70K today @tBot."
   • tBot listens for mentions like this and automatically generates a Tlink to that specific prediction, replying to the tweet with a card and bet options.
   • The card has two main buttons: “Bet Yes” and “Bet No.” Each bet costs $1, and users can bet multiple times by clicking more than once.

2. Technical:

   • Use Twitter API to listen for tweets mentioning @tBot.
   • Upon detecting a mention, a Prediction NFT tapp is created, and the Tlink is generated using the Tapp engine with a unique ID for the prediction event.
   • The owner of the tapp (the user who @tBot) is granted the NFT representing the prediction.
   • The Tapp card uses ERC-5169/7738 to handle the bet collection and state management of the pool.
   • The Tlink URL could look like: https://viewer.tokenscript.org/?contract=contractAddress&tokenId=predictionID

Betting System:

1. User Flow:

   • Other users click on the link and bet $1 for their choice (Yes or No). The more clicks, the more they bet.
   • The system allows for the same user to bet multiple times, with each bet incrementing their stake.

2. Technical:

   • Smart contracts hold the $1 bet from each user. Each choice (Yes/No) is a separate pool.
   • A simple balance tracking system is implemented where each user's bet (total count) is stored.

Revenue Distribution:

1. User Flow:

   • After the result is finalized, the winning side splits the pool according to their contribution.
   • 10% of the total pool goes to the original poster (User A, who owns the Prediction NFT tapp), and 1% goes to the platform.
   • The system also allows for viral sharing: if User B shares User A's Tlink, 50% of User A's 10% cut gets shared with User B and any subsequent sharers (50% of 50% for further chains).

2. Technical:

   • A reward calculation is set in the smart contract:
     • 10% to Prediction Owner (User A).
     • 1% to platform.
     • 50% of 10% shared in a chain for sharers (User B, C, etc.).
   • The splitting logic can be handled by a recursive formula or using a fixed max number of steps for simplicity.

NFT for each prediction:

1. User Flow:

   • Each prediction is an NFT tapp, owner is the people who @tBot.
   • The NFT tapp cards for public: Yes $1, No $1, share to earn, check result
   • The NFT tapp cards for owner: Yes $1, No $1, share to earn, withdraw money

2. Technical:

   • An ERC-721 (NFT) contract is issued upon the prediction is created by tBot.

Finalizing and Settling Bets:

1. User Flow:

   • Once the prediction period ends, the result is determined (either manually by an admin or via an oracle).
   • The winning side receives their portion of the pool, proportional to their bet.

2. Technical:

   • The result can be verified either manually or using a decentralized oracle (Chainlink or a custom-built oracle to fetch BTC prices).
   • The smart contract distributes funds to the winning side once the final outcome is known.

Viral Sharing System:

1. User Flow:

   • When a user shares a prediction via the “Share” button, a unique Tlink is generated. Anyone who places a bet via that shared link contributes to the revenue share chain.
   • The shared Tlink also earns a portion of the 10% reward, as described in the revenue distribution logic.

2. Technical:

   • Each shared link creates a unique identifier tied to the original prediction, but with a record of the sharer’s ID to handle revenue splitting in the smart contract.
   • The chain continues as new users share, but the percentage shrinks based on the hierarchy.

Smart Contract Design:

The smart contract would need to cover:

1. Prediction NFT Tapp issuance and ownership.
2. Betting pools for both Yes/No outcomes.
3. Revenue distribution logic for creator and sharers.
4. NFT issuance for user account management.
5. Oracle integration for prediction result verification.