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Chapter 13 summary added, html updated #46
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### A Pluto.jl notebook ### | ||
# v0.12.20 | ||
# v0.12.21 | ||
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using Markdown | ||
using InteractiveUtils | ||
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As a final summary, when dealing with a time series it is very important to be able to define if it has any latent variables such as trend or seasonality. Once we can find that underlying information, we will be able to generate forecasts with confidence. We just need to look deeper. | ||
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### Bibliography | ||
### Summary | ||
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In this chapter, we have learned the basic foundations of time series analysis. | ||
We have defined what a time series is and delved into a particular method, the exponential smoothing, that allows us to take into account the most distant values of our data. | ||
There was a problem hiding this comment. Choose a reason for hiding this commentThe reason will be displayed to describe this comment to others. Learn more. we defined |
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Finally, we explained more complex versions of the method and used them to make predictions in different kinds of scenarios. | ||
When the processes followed a marked tendency, we used the trend method and the damped trend method to make long term predictions. | ||
When the process was highly correlated with the seasonality of the year, like the quantity of air passengers in Australia, we utilized the Holt-Winters’ seasonal method. | ||
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delete this part since it's too specific When the process exhibited seasonal trends, we utilized the Holt-Winters’ seasonal method. |
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### References | ||
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- [Forecasting: Principles and Practice, Chap 7](https://otexts.com/fpp2/expsmooth.html) | ||
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we learned