Supplementary and replication materials for paper "Examining a Most Likely Case for Strong Campaign Effects: Hitler's Speeches and the Rise of the Nazi Party, 1927-1933"
This repository provides replication materials for the paper "Examining a Most Likely Case for Strong Campaign Effects: Hitler's Speeches and the Rise of the Nazi Party, 1927-1933" by Peter Selb and Simon Munzert.
The current version of the corresponding working paper can be accessed here: https://github.com/simonmunzert/hitler-speeches/raw/master/preprint.pdf
Given the devastating historical consequences, Hitler’s rise to power amidst an unprecedented propaganda campaign constitutes one of the most notorious cases for campaign effects research. Although contemporary witnesses and historians seem unanimous in recognizing the importance of Hitler’s campaign for the electoral success of the Nazi party, empirical evidence is scant. We collected data about Hitler’s speeches and gauge their impact on voter support at five national elections preced- ing the dictatorship. We use a semi-parametric difference-in-differences approach to estimate effects in the face of potential confounding due to the deliberate scheduling of events. Our findings suggest that, while Hitler’s speeches appear rationally targeted, their impact on the Nazis’ electoral fortunes were negligible. Only the 1932 presidential runoff, an election preceded by an extraordinarily short, intense and one-sided campaign, yields consistent effects. Our findings have repercussions for both modern research into campaign effects and the dominant epistemology of historical explanation.
Peter Selb (corresponding author)
University of Konstanz
Department of Politics and Public Administration
P.o. Box 85
D-78457 Konstanz, Germany
Email: [email protected]
Simon Munzert (repository maintainer)
Hertie School of Governance
Friedrichstr. 180
D-10117 Berlin, Germany
E-mail: [email protected]