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add support for switch to force monotonously decreasing solids fossil use per region #1873

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Renato-Rodrigues
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@Renato-Rodrigues Renato-Rodrigues commented Nov 1, 2024

Purpose of this PR

  • Add switch to force monotonously decreasing solids fossil use per region to avoid zig-zag temporal behavior in the model for decarbonization scenarios

Type of change

  • New feature

Checklist:

  • My code follows the coding etiquette
  • I performed a self-review of my own code
  • I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
  • All automated model tests pass (FAIL 0 in the output of make test)

Further information (optional):

  • Test runs are here:
    /p/projects/ecemf/REMIND/2040_scenarios/_mergeTest/remind_seFeSectorSharePenalization_2025/output

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*' Limit solids fossil to be lower or equal to previous year values
***---------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ifthen.limitSolidsFossilRegi not %cm_limitSolidsFossilRegi% == "off"
q_fossilSolidsLimitReg(ttot,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$(limitSolidsFossilRegi(regi) and (ttot.val ge max(2020, cm_startyear)) AND sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) AND (sameas(sector,"indst") OR sameas(sector,"build")) AND sameas(entySe,"sesofos"))..
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this is on for ttot = 2020, so that in 2020 fossil solids use already has to go down.
I guess we are positive that the average of 2018-2022 is already lower than the average 2013-2017 in each EU region and US historically?

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@Renato-Rodrigues Renato-Rodrigues Nov 5, 2024

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This could be an small issue for FRA, and it would be a real issue if anybody enforces this to India (or MEA, or OAS, or NEU).

image

I will check if we can control the historical data already by some of our other equations instead.

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If you are ok with it, I would merge as is for now as I only enable this for EU27 in my paper runs, and I will check on enforcing historical values after I submit the paper revision.

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sure, merge for now.
just wondering: what would speak against setting the starting point to 2025? I don't think the runs ever produced a solids spike in 2020, only in 2025?

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I ran a test where I enforced this change only from 2025 onward, and part of the spike shifted to 2020.
I need to test this again, but for now, I would keep it as is.
In the near future, I plan to implement both the enforcement of historical values up to 2020 and adjust the start year for this switch to 2025.

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looks good

@Renato-Rodrigues Renato-Rodrigues merged commit 4796284 into remindmodel:develop Nov 6, 2024
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2 participants