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some updates from NGFS runs #1385

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Oct 13, 2023
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some updates from NGFS runs #1385

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9 changes: 3 additions & 6 deletions modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/postsolve.gms
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Expand Up @@ -45,20 +45,20 @@ p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd(p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)) =
min(max(0.1**p45_adjustExponent, p45_factorRescaleCO2Tax(t,regi)), max(2-iteration.val/15,1.01-iteration.val/10000));
*** use max(0.1, ...) to make sure that negative emission values cause no problem, use +0.0001 such that net zero targets cause no problem

pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2016 AND t.val ge cm_startyear AND t.val le p45_lastNDCyear(regi)) = max(1* sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC,pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi) * p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd(t,regi) );
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Will this create problems if we have runs with cm_startyear = 2025 in two years?

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No, because then t = 2025, 2030, 2035 etc. We have to adjust that though once the NPi realization fixes the carbon prices for t = 2025, I think.

pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2021 AND t.val le p45_lastNDCyear(regi)) = max(1* sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC,pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi) * p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd(t,regi) );

p45_factorRescaleCO2Tax_iter(iteration,t,regi) = p45_factorRescaleCO2Tax(t,regi);
p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd_iter(iteration,t,regi) = p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd(t,regi);

display p45_factorRescaleCO2TaxLtd_iter;

*CB* special case SSA: cap carbon price at 30 in 2025, 45 in 2030, to reflect low energy productivity of region, and avoid high losses
*CB* special case SSA: maximum carbon price at 30 in 2025, 45 in 2030, to reflect low energy productivity of region, and avoid high losses
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(sameas(t,"2025") AND sameas(regi,"SSA")) = min(pm_taxCO2eq("2025",regi)$(sameas(regi,"SSA")),30 * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC);
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(sameas(t,"2030") AND sameas(regi,"SSA")) = min(pm_taxCO2eq("2030",regi)$(sameas(regi,"SSA")),45 * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC);

*** calculate tax path until NDC target year - linear increase
p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) = smax(t$(t.val = p45_firstNDCyear(regi)), pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi));
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val > 2016 AND t.val < p45_firstNDCyear(regi)) = p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi)*(t.val-2015)/(p45_firstNDCyear(regi)-2015);
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val > 2021 AND t.val < p45_firstNDCyear(regi)) = (p45_taxCO2eqFirstNDCyear(regi) - pm_taxCO2eq("2020",regi))*(t.val-2020)/(p45_firstNDCyear(regi)-2020) + pm_taxCO2eq("2020",regi);

*** replace taxCO2eq between NDC targets such that taxCO2eq between goals does not decrease
loop( p45_NDCyearSet(t2,regi) ,
Expand All @@ -78,9 +78,6 @@ pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt p45_lastNDCyear(regi))
***as a minimum, have linear price increase starting from 1$ in 2030
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2030) = max(pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi),1*sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC * (1+(t.val-2030)*9/7));

*** new 2020 carbon price definition: weighted average of 2015 and 2025, with triple weight for 2015 (which is zero for all non-eu regions).
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$sameas(t,"2020") = (3*pm_taxCO2eq("2015",regi)+pm_taxCO2eq("2025",regi))/4;

display pm_taxCO2eq;

);
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11 changes: 2 additions & 9 deletions modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/preloop.gms
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Expand Up @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@
*** SOF ./modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/preloop.gms

*** first calculate tax path until last NDC target year - linear increase
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2016 AND t.val le p45_lastNDCyear(regi)) = pm_taxCO2eq("2020",regi)*(t.val-2015)/5;
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2021 AND t.val le p45_lastNDCyear(regi)) = pm_taxCO2eq("2020",regi)*(t.val-2015)/5;

*** convergence scheme after the last NDC target year: exponential increase with 1.25% AND regional convergence until p45_taxCO2eqConvergenceYear
p45_taxCO2eqLastNDCyear(regi) = smax(t$(t.val = p45_lastNDCyear(regi)), pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi));
Expand All @@ -21,14 +21,6 @@ pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt p45_lastNDCyear(regi))

display pm_taxCO2eq;

***as a minimum, have linear price increase starting from 1$ in 2030
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$(t.val gt p45_lastNDCyear(regi)) = max(pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi),1*sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC * (1+(t.val-2030)*9/7));

*** new 2020 carbon price definition: weighted average of 2015 and 2025, with triple weight for 2015 (which is zero for all non-eu regions).
pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)$sameas(t, "2020") = (3*pm_taxCO2eq("2015",regi)+pm_taxCO2eq("2025",regi))/4;

display pm_taxCO2eq;

*#' @equations
*#' calculate level of emission target that it should converge to, composed of:
*#' emission target relative to 2005 emissions (factor_targetyear) for part of region with NDC target
Expand All @@ -38,4 +30,5 @@ p45_CO2eqwoLU_goal(p45_NDCyearSet(t,regi)) =
+ (1-p45_2005shareTarget(t,regi)) * p45_BAU_reg_emi_wo_LU_bunkers(t,regi); !! baseline for share of countries without NDC target

display pm_taxCO2eq,p45_CO2eqwoLU_goal;

*** EOF ./modules/45_carbonprice/NDC/preloop.gms
31 changes: 25 additions & 6 deletions modules/46_carbonpriceRegi/NDC/datainput.gms
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Expand Up @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ $onlisting
;

Parameter p46_2005shareTarget(ttot,all_regi) "2005 GHG emission share of countries with quantifyable emissions under NDC in particular region, time dimension specifies alternative future target years";
p46_2005shareTarget(ttot,all_regi) = f46_2005shareTarget(ttot,all_regi,"%cm_NDC_version%","%cm_GDPscen%");
p46_2005shareTarget(t,all_regi) = f46_2005shareTarget(t,all_regi,"%cm_NDC_version%","%cm_GDPscen%");

display p46_2005shareTarget;

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -71,19 +71,38 @@ $offdelim
*** 0.2 is a rounded value valid for all except 2018_uncond, because Brazil had no unconditional target then.

if (not sameas("%cm_NDC_version%","2018_uncond"),
p46_factorTargetyear(ttot,regi)$(sameas(regi,"LAM") AND sameas(ttot,"2030")) = p46_factorTargetyear(ttot,regi) + 0.2;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"LAM") AND sameas(t,"2030")) = p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi) + 0.2;
);

*** add 2060 GHG net zero target for China, not yet in the UNFCCC_NDC database
p46_factorTargetyear(ttot,regi)$(sameas(regi,"CHA") AND sameas(ttot,"2060")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(ttot,regi)$(sameas(regi,"CHA") AND sameas(ttot,"2060")) = 1;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"CHA") AND sameas(t,"2060")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"CHA") AND sameas(t,"2060")) = 1;

$ifthen.p46_netZero "%cm_netZeroScen%" == "NGFS_v4_20pc"
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"CAZ") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"CAZ") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0.8;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"EUR") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"EUR") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0.8;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"JPN") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"JPN") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0.8;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"LAM") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"LAM") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0.8;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"USA") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"USA") AND sameas(t,"2050")) = 0.8;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"CHA") AND sameas(t,"2060")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"CHA") AND sameas(t,"2060")) = 0.8;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"REF") AND sameas(t,"2060")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"REF") AND sameas(t,"2060")) = 0.8;
p46_factorTargetyear(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"IND") AND sameas(t,"2070")) = 0;
p46_2005shareTarget(t,regi)$(sameas(regi,"IND") AND sameas(t,"2070")) = 0.8;
$endif.p46_netZero


*** parameters for selecting NDC years
Scalar p46_ignoreNDCbefore "NDC targets before this years are ignored, for example to exclude 2030 targets" /2028/;
p46_ignoreNDCbefore = max(p46_ignoreNDCbefore, cm_startyear)
Scalar p46_ignoreNDCafter "NDC targets after this years are ignored, for example to exclude 2050 net zero targets" /2070/;
Scalar p46_minRatioOfCoverageToMax "only targets whose coverage is this times p46_bestNDCcoverage are considered. Use 1 for only best." /0.2/;
Scalar p46_ignoreNDCafter "NDC targets after this years are ignored, for example to exclude 2050 net zero targets" /2100/;
Scalar p46_minRatioOfCoverageToMax "only targets whose coverage is this times p46_bestNDCcoverage are considered. Use 1 for only best." /0.7/;
Scalar p46_useSingleYearCloseTo "if 0: use all. If > 0: use only one single NDC target per country closest to this year (use 2030.4 to prefer 2030 over 2035 over 2025)" /0/;

Set p46_NDCyearSet(ttot,all_regi) "YES for years whose NDC targets is used";
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion modules/46_carbonpriceRegi/NDC/declarations.gms
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Expand Up @@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ p46_taxCO2eqLast(tall,all_regi) "general carbon price i
;

Scalar p46_adjustExponent "exponent in tax adjustment process";
Scalar p46_startInIteration "first iteration to start adapting pm_taxCO2eqRegi" / 10 /;
Scalar p46_startInIteration "first iteration to start adapting pm_taxCO2eqRegi" / 5 /;
Scalar p46_previousYearInLoop "previous year in loop, required for linear interpolation in postsolve";
Scalar p46_taxPreviousYearInLoop "tax of previous year in loop, required for linear interpolation in postsolve";

Expand Down
3 changes: 0 additions & 3 deletions modules/46_carbonpriceRegi/NDC/not_used.txt
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Expand Up @@ -5,6 +5,3 @@
# | REMIND License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
# | Contact: [email protected]
name,type,reason
vm_emiTe,variable,only used for CO2 targets
vm_emiCdr,variable,only used for CO2 targets
vm_emiMac,variable,only used for CO2 targets
14 changes: 7 additions & 7 deletions modules/46_carbonpriceRegi/NDC/postsolve.gms
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Expand Up @@ -22,13 +22,13 @@ p46_CO2eqwoLU_actual(p46_NDCyearSet(t,regi)) =
* vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,enty,enty2,"trans","other") * sm_c_2_co2 * 1000
);

*** there is some debate whether Chinas net zero goal is not CO2eq, but CO2. Then use CO2 emissions minus substract bunker emissions
*** p46_CO2eqwoLU_actual(p46_NDCyearSet(t,regi))$(sameas(regi,"CHA") AND sameas(t,"2055")) =
*** (vm_emiTe.l(t,regi,"co2") + vm_emiMac.L(t,regi,"co2") + vm_emiCdr.L(t,regi,"co2"))*sm_c_2_co2*1000
*** - sum(se2fe(enty,enty2,te),
*** pm_emifac(t,regi,enty,enty2,te,"co2")
*** * vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,enty,enty2,"trans","other") * sm_c_2_co2 * 1000
*** );
*** Indias 2070 target is not CO2eq, but CO2. Then use CO2 emissions minus substract bunker emissions
p46_CO2eqwoLU_actual(p46_NDCyearSet(t,regi))$(sameas(regi,"IND") AND sameas(t,"2070")) =
(vm_emiTe.l(t,regi,"co2") + vm_emiMac.L(t,regi,"co2") + vm_emiCdr.L(t,regi,"co2"))*sm_c_2_co2*1000
- sum(se2fe(enty,enty2,te),
pm_emifac(t,regi,enty,enty2,te,"co2")
* vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,enty,enty2,"trans","other") * sm_c_2_co2 * 1000
);

display vm_co2eq.l;
display p46_CO2eqwoLU_actual;
Expand Down
7 changes: 2 additions & 5 deletions modules/46_carbonpriceRegi/NDC/preloop.gms
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Expand Up @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
pm_taxCO2eqRegi(t,regi)$(t.val gt 2016 AND t.val le p46_lastNDCyear(regi))
= max(
0.1 * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC,
(30 * p46_bestNDCcoverage(regi) - pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi)) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC
(30 * p46_bestNDCcoverage(regi) * sm_DptCO2_2_TDpGtC - pm_taxCO2eq(t,regi))
)*(t.val-2015)/5;

*** convergence scheme after the last NDC target year: exponential increase AND regional convergence until p46_taxCO2eqConvergenceYear
Expand All @@ -21,14 +21,11 @@ pm_taxCO2eqRegi(t,regi)$(t.val gt p46_lastNDCyear(regi))
= ( !! regional, weight going from 1 in last NDC target year to 0 in 2100
p46_taxCO2eqLastNDCyear(regi) * p46_taxCO2eqYearlyIncrease**(t.val-p46_lastNDCyear(regi)) * (max(p46_taxCO2eqConvergenceYear,t.val) - t.val)
!! global, weight going from 0 in NDC target year to 1 in and after 2100
+ p46_taxCO2eqGlobal2030 * p46_taxCO2eqYearlyIncrease**(t.val-2030) * (min(p46_taxCO2eqConvergenceYear,t.val) - p46_lastNDCyear(regi))
+ p46_taxCO2eqGlobal2030 * p46_taxCO2eqYearlyIncrease**(t.val-2030) * (min(p46_taxCO2eqConvergenceYear,t.val) - p46_lastNDCyear(regi))
)/(p46_taxCO2eqConvergenceYear - p46_lastNDCyear(regi));

display pm_taxCO2eqRegi;

*** new 2020 carbon price definition: weighted average of 2015 and 2025, with triple weight for 2015 (which is zero for all non-eu regions).
pm_taxCO2eqRegi("2020",regi) = (3*pm_taxCO2eqRegi("2015",regi)+pm_taxCO2eqRegi("2025",regi))/4;

*#' @equations
*#' calculate level of emission target that it should converge to, composed of:
*#' emission target relative to 2005 emissions (factor_targetyear) for part of region with NDC target
Expand Down
6 changes: 6 additions & 0 deletions modules/46_carbonpriceRegi/netZero/datainput.gms
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Expand Up @@ -11,6 +11,12 @@ $ifthen.p46_zeroYear "%cm_netZeroScen%" == "ENGAGE4p5_GlP"
p46_zeroYear = 2200;
$endif.p46_zeroYear

$ifthen.p46_zeroYear "%cm_netZeroScen%" == "NGFS_v4_20pc"
p46_zeroYear = 2200;
$endif.p46_zeroYear
$ifthen.p46_zeroYear "%cm_netZeroScen%" == "NGFS_v4"
p46_zeroYear = 2200;
$endif.p46_zeroYear

***profile for countries with 2050 target
pm_taxCO2eqRegi(t,nz_reg2050)$sameas(t,"2035")=5;
Expand Down
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