Add timestamps for video 33: Thomas Wiecki, Part 1

videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md

@@ -13,9 +13,27 @@ Discourse Discussion
 https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-bayesian-workflow-building-a-covid-19-model-by-thomas-wiecki/6017
 
 ## Timestamps
-- 0:00 Start of event
-- 0:00 
-- 0:00 Help us add timestamps here:  https://github.com/pymc-devs/video-timestamps
+00:00 Speaker’s introduction
+00:58 Key strengths of bayesian statistics
+03:29 Agenda - what will you learn today 
+04:00 Dataset
+05:24 Bayesian workflow 
+06:52 Plot the data for Germany cases
+08:11 Instantiate model and set parameters for exponential regression
+12:26 Run priori predictive check
+14:24 Fit model
+15:00 Mass matrix traceback and sampling issues 
+18:35 Proposing a better model - update parameters and likelihood distribution
+20:54 Fit the new model and assess convergence
+22:46 Run posterior predictive check 
+24:35 Prediction and Forecasting with pm.Data 
+25:21 Update intercept and slope parameters 
+26:14 Update model data using pm.Data container
+27:24 Plot results and discuss model quality
+28:35 Improve model by fitting a Logistic regression
+31:49 Compare models 
+33:39 Fit the logistic regression to US data
+34:20 Model main limitations and topic for next video 
 
 Speaker bio: