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Create guide for writing custom distributions (#185)
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* Create custom_distribution.ipynb

* Update custom_distribution.ipynb

* Replace 0 with -inf

* Set bound on theta to be > 0

* Simplify logp expression

pymc-devs/pymc#4775 (comment)

* address PR comments

* upload csv to data folder

* move notebook to examples/pymc3_howtos

* add notebook to table of contents

* read csv from data folder using try except clause

* pre-commit

* address PR comments

* make predictions on heldout set instead of future

* add sampling sanity check
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@ally-lee
ally-lee authored Sep 1, 2021
1 parent 0139223 commit 2002ebd
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70 changes: 70 additions & 0 deletions examples/data/tufts_medical_center_2020-04-29_to_2020-07-06.csv
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date,hospitalized_total_covid_patients_suspected_and_confirmed_including_icu,hospitalized_covid_patients_in_icu_suspected_and_confirmed
2020-04-29,88,53.0
2020-04-30,92,52.0
2020-05-01,84,46.0
2020-05-02,85,44.0
2020-05-03,85,45.0
2020-05-04,95,51.0
2020-05-05,87,43.0
2020-05-06,78,47.0
2020-05-07,76,41.0
2020-05-08,68,39.0
2020-05-09,60,38.0
2020-05-10,58,34.0
2020-05-11,48,34.0
2020-05-12,55,37.0
2020-05-13,54,33.0
2020-05-14,67,33.0
2020-05-15,70,34.0
2020-05-16,71,35.0
2020-05-17,75,34.0
2020-05-18,73,35.0
2020-05-19,72,34.0
2020-05-20,78,40.0
2020-05-21,71,35.0
2020-05-22,66,33.0
2020-05-23,64,31.0
2020-05-24,63,30.0
2020-05-25,59,28.0
2020-05-26,57,26.0
2020-05-27,62,24.0
2020-05-28,58,21.0
2020-05-29,55,22.0
2020-05-30,50,22.0
2020-05-31,51,17.0
2020-06-01,54,17.0
2020-06-02,56,19.0
2020-06-03,52,19.0
2020-06-04,53,20.0
2020-06-05,52,19.0
2020-06-06,44,18.0
2020-06-07,44,14.0
2020-06-08,44,14.0
2020-06-09,44,17.0
2020-06-10,44,16.0
2020-06-11,40,16.0
2020-06-12,40,16.0
2020-06-13,39,14.0
2020-06-14,32,15.0
2020-06-15,32,15.0
2020-06-16,30,15.0
2020-06-17,39,18.0
2020-06-18,36,17.0
2020-06-19,37,16.0
2020-06-20,35,15.0
2020-06-21,31,14.0
2020-06-22,29,15.0
2020-06-23,28,13.0
2020-06-24,34,13.0
2020-06-25,31,12.0
2020-06-26,29,12.0
2020-06-27,32,12.0
2020-06-28,20,9.0
2020-06-29,20,9.0
2020-06-30,23,9.0
2020-07-01,24,8.0
2020-07-02,21,8.0
2020-07-03,19,8.0
2020-07-04,21,9.0
2020-07-05,14,6.0
2020-07-06,18,8.0
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