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@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ build | |
dist | ||
pylops.egg-info/ | ||
.eggs/ | ||
__pycache__ | ||
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# setuptools_scm generated # | ||
pylops/version.py | ||
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r""" | ||
Bayesian Linear Regression | ||
========================== | ||
In the :ref:`sphx_glr_gallery_plot_linearregr.py` example, we | ||
performed linear regression by applying a variety of solvers to the | ||
:py:class:`pylops.LinearRegression` operator. | ||
In this example, we will apply linear regression the Bayesian way. | ||
In Bayesian inference, we are not looking for a "best" estimate | ||
of the linear regression parameters; rather, we are looking for | ||
all possible parameters and their associated (posterior) probability, | ||
that is, how likely that those are the parameters that generated our data. | ||
To do this, we will leverage the probabilistic programming library | ||
`PyMC <https://www.pm.io>`_. | ||
In the Bayesian formulation, we write the problem in the following manner: | ||
.. math:: | ||
y_i \sim N(x_0 + x_1 t_i, \sigma) \qquad \forall i=0,1,\ldots,N-1 | ||
where :math:`x_0` is the intercept and :math:`x_1` is the gradient. | ||
This notation means that the obtained measurements :math:`y_i` are normally distributed around | ||
mean :math:`x_0 + x_1 t_i` with a standard deviation of :math:`\sigma`. | ||
We can also express this problem in a matrix form, which makes it clear that we | ||
can use a PyLops operator to describe this relationship. | ||
.. math:: | ||
\mathbf{y} \sim N(\mathbf{A} \mathbf{x}, \sigma) | ||
In this example, we will combine the Bayesian power of PyMC with the linear language of | ||
PyLops. | ||
""" | ||
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import arviz as az | ||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt | ||
import numpy as np | ||
import pymc as pm | ||
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import pylops | ||
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plt.close("all") | ||
np.random.seed(10) | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# Define the input parameters: number of samples along the t-axis (``N``), | ||
# linear regression coefficients (``x``), and standard deviation of noise | ||
# to be added to data (``sigma``). | ||
N = 30 | ||
x = np.array([1.0, 0.5]) | ||
sigma = 0.25 | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# Let's create the time axis and initialize the | ||
# :py:class:`pylops.LinearRegression` operator | ||
t = np.linspace(0, 1, N) | ||
LRop = pylops.LinearRegression(t, dtype=t.dtype) | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# We can then apply the operator in forward mode to compute our data points | ||
# along the x-axis (``y``). We will also generate some random gaussian noise | ||
# and create a noisy version of the data (``yn``). | ||
y = LRop @ x | ||
yn = y + np.random.normal(0, sigma, N) | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# The deterministic solution is to solve the | ||
# :math:`\mathbf{y} = \mathbf{A} \mathbf{x}` in a least-squares sense. | ||
# Using PyLops, the ``/`` operator solves the iteratively (i.e., | ||
# :py:func:`scipy.sparse.linalg.lsqr`). | ||
# In Bayesian terminology, this estimator is known as the maximulum likelihood | ||
# estimation (MLE). | ||
x_mle = LRop / yn | ||
noise_mle = np.sqrt(np.sum((yn - LRop @ x_mle) ** 2) / (N - 1)) | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# Alternatively, we may regularize the problem. In this case we will condition | ||
# the solution towards smaller magnitude parameters, we can use a regularized | ||
# least squares approach. Since the weight is pretty small, we expect the | ||
# result to be very similar to the one above. | ||
sigma_prior = 20 | ||
eps = 1 / np.sqrt(2) / sigma_prior | ||
x_map, *_ = pylops.optimization.basic.lsqr(LRop, yn, damp=eps) | ||
noise_map = np.sqrt(np.sum((yn - LRop @ x_map) ** 2) / (N - 1)) | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# Let's plot the best fitting line for the case of noise free and noisy data | ||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 4)) | ||
for est, est_label, c in zip( | ||
[x, x_mle, x_map], ["True", "MLE", "MAP"], ["k", "C0", "C1"] | ||
): | ||
ax.plot( | ||
np.array([t.min(), t.max()]), | ||
np.array([t.min(), t.max()]) * est[1] + est[0], | ||
color=c, | ||
ls="--" if est_label == "MAP" else "-", | ||
lw=4, | ||
label=rf"{est_label}: $x_0$ = {est[0]:.2f}, $x_1$ = {est[1]:.2f}", | ||
) | ||
ax.scatter(t, y, c="r", s=70) | ||
ax.scatter(t, yn, c="g", s=70) | ||
ax.legend() | ||
fig.tight_layout() | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# Let's solve this problem the Bayesian way, which consists in obtaining the | ||
# posterior probability :math:`p(\mathbf{x}\,|\,\mathbf{y})` via Bayes theorem: | ||
# | ||
# .. math:: | ||
# \underbrace{p(\mathbf{x} \,|\, \mathbf{y})}_{\text{posterior}} | ||
# \propto \overbrace{p(\mathbf{y} \,|\, \mathbf{x})}^{\text{likelihood}}\; | ||
# \overbrace{p(\mathbf{x})}^{\text{prior}} | ||
# | ||
# To do so, we need to define the priors and the likelihood. | ||
# | ||
# As hinted above, priors in Bayesian analysis can be interpreted as the | ||
# probabilistic equivalent to regularization. Finding the maximum a posteriori | ||
# (MAP) estimate to a least-squares problem with a Gaussian prior on the | ||
# parameters is equivalent to applying a Tikhonov (L2) regularization to these | ||
# parameters. A Laplace prior is equivalent to a sparse (L1) regularization. | ||
# In addition, the weight of the regularization is controlled by the "scale" of | ||
# the distribution of the prior; the standard deviation (in the case of a Gaussian) | ||
# is inversely proportional strength of the regularization. So if we use the same | ||
# sigma_prior above as the standard deviation of our prior distribition, we | ||
# should get the same MAP out of them. In practice, in Bayesian analysis we are | ||
# not only interested in point estimates like MAP, but rather, the whole | ||
# posterior distribution. If you want the MAP only, there are better, | ||
# methods to obtain them, such as the one shown above. | ||
# | ||
# In this problem we will use weak, not very informative priors, by setting | ||
# their prior to accept a wide range of probable values. This is equivalent to | ||
# setting the "weights" to be small, as shown above: | ||
# | ||
# .. math:: | ||
# x_0 \sim N(0, 20) | ||
# | ||
# x_1 \sim N(0, 20) | ||
# | ||
# \sigma \sim \text{HalfCauchy}(10) | ||
# | ||
# The (log) likelihood in Bayesian analysis is the equivalent of the cost | ||
# function in deterministic inverse problems. In this case we have already | ||
# seen this likelihood: | ||
# | ||
# .. math:: | ||
# p(\mathbf{y}\,|\,\mathbf{x}) \sim N(\mathbf{A}\mathbf{x}, \sigma) | ||
# | ||
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# Construct a PyTensor `Op` which can be used in a PyMC model. | ||
pytensor_lrop = pylops.PyTensorOperator(LRop) | ||
dims = pytensor_lrop.dims # Inherits dims, dimsd and shape from LRop | ||
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# Construct the PyMC model | ||
with pm.Model() as model: | ||
y_data = pm.Data("y_data", yn) | ||
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# Define priors | ||
sp = pm.HalfCauchy("σ", beta=10) | ||
xp = pm.Normal("x", 0, sigma=sigma_prior, shape=dims) | ||
mu = pm.Deterministic("mu", pytensor_lrop(xp)) | ||
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# Define likelihood | ||
likelihood = pm.Normal("y", mu=mu, sigma=sp, observed=y_data) | ||
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# Inference! | ||
idata = pm.sample(500, tune=200, chains=2) | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# The plot below is known as the "trace" plot. The left column displays the | ||
# posterior distributions of all latent variables in the model. The top-left | ||
# plot has multiple colored posteriors, one for each parameter of the latent | ||
# vector :math:`\mathbf{x}`. The bottom left plot displays the posterior of the | ||
# estimated noise :math:`\sigma`. | ||
# | ||
# In these plots there are multiple distributions of the same color and | ||
# multiple line styles. Each of these represents a "chain". A chain is a single | ||
# run of a Monte Carlo algorithm. Generally, Monte Carlo methods run various | ||
# chains to ensure that all regions of the posterior distribution are sampled. | ||
# These chains are shown on the right hand plots. | ||
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axes = az.plot_trace(idata, figsize=(10, 7), var_names=["~mu"]) | ||
axes[0, 0].axvline(x[0], label="True Intercept", lw=2, color="k") | ||
axes[0, 0].axvline(x_map[0], label="Intercept MAP", lw=2, color="C0", ls="--") | ||
axes[0, 0].axvline(x[1], label="True Slope", lw=2, color="darkgray") | ||
axes[0, 0].axvline(x_map[1], label="Slope MAP", lw=2, color="C1", ls="--") | ||
axes[0, 1].axhline(x[0], label="True Intercept", lw=2, color="k") | ||
axes[0, 1].axhline(x_map[0], label="Intercept MAP", lw=2, color="C0", ls="--") | ||
axes[0, 1].axhline(x[1], label="True Slope", lw=2, color="darkgray") | ||
axes[0, 1].axhline(x_map[1], label="Slope MAP", lw=2, color="C1", ls="--") | ||
axes[1, 0].axvline(sigma, label="True Sigma", lw=2, color="k") | ||
axes[1, 0].axvline(noise_map, label="Sigma MAP", lw=2, color="C0", ls="--") | ||
axes[1, 1].axhline(sigma, label="True Sigma", lw=2, color="k") | ||
axes[1, 1].axhline(noise_map, label="Sigma MAP", lw=2, color="C0", ls="--") | ||
for ax in axes.ravel(): | ||
ax.legend() | ||
ax.get_figure().tight_layout() | ||
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################################################################################ | ||
# With this model, we can obtain an uncertainty measurement via the High Density | ||
# Interval. To do that, we need to sample the "preditive posterior", that is, | ||
# the posterior distribution of the data, given the model. What this does is | ||
# sample the latent vetors from their posteriors (above), and use the model | ||
# to construct realizations of the data given these realizations. They represent | ||
# what the model thinks the data should look like, given everything it has | ||
# already seen. | ||
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with model: | ||
pm.sample_posterior_predictive(idata, extend_inferencedata=True) | ||
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############################################################################### | ||
# sphinx_gallery_thumbnail_number = 3 | ||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 4)) | ||
az.plot_hdi( | ||
t, | ||
idata.posterior_predictive["y"], | ||
fill_kwargs={"label": "95% HDI"}, | ||
hdi_prob=0.95, | ||
ax=ax, | ||
) | ||
for est, est_label, c in zip( | ||
[x, x_mle, x_map], ["True", "MLE", "MAP"], ["k", "C0", "C1"] | ||
): | ||
ax.plot( | ||
np.array([t.min(), t.max()]), | ||
np.array([t.min(), t.max()]) * est[1] + est[0], | ||
color=c, | ||
ls="--" if est_label == "MAP" else "-", | ||
lw=4, | ||
label=rf"{est_label}: $x_0$ = {est[0]:.2f}, $x_1$ = {est[1]:.2f}", | ||
) | ||
ax.scatter(t, y, c="r", s=70) | ||
ax.scatter(t, yn, c="g", s=70) | ||
ax.legend() | ||
fig.tight_layout() |
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