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Per #2058, switch from 1 Bias Ratio column to 5 to include the compon…
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JohnHalleyGotway committed Oct 27, 2022
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion data/table_files/met_header_columns_V11.0.txt
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Expand Up @@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ V11.0 : STAT : PJC : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID
V11.0 : STAT : PRC : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL (N_THRESH) THRESH_[0-9]* PODY_[0-9]* POFD_[0-9]*
V11.0 : STAT : PSTD : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL (N_THRESH) BASER BASER_NCL BASER_NCU RELIABILITY RESOLUTION UNCERTAINTY ROC_AUC BRIER BRIER_NCL BRIER_NCU BRIERCL BRIERCL_NCL BRIERCL_NCU BSS BSS_SMPL THRESH_[0-9]*
V11.0 : STAT : ECLV : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL BASER VALUE_BASER (N_PTS) CL_[0-9]* VALUE_[0-9]*
V11.0 : STAT : ECNT : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL N_ENS CRPS CRPSS IGN ME RMSE SPREAD ME_OERR RMSE_OERR SPREAD_OERR SPREAD_PLUS_OERR CRPSCL CRPS_EMP CRPSCL_EMP CRPSS_EMP CRPS_EMP_FAIR
V11.0 : STAT : ECNT : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL N_ENS CRPS CRPSS IGN ME RMSE SPREAD ME_OERR RMSE_OERR SPREAD_OERR SPREAD_PLUS_OERR CRPSCL CRPS_EMP CRPSCL_EMP CRPSS_EMP CRPS_EMP_FAIR BIAS_RATIO N_GE_OBS ME_GE_OBS N_LT_OBS ME_LT_OBS
V11.0 : STAT : RPS : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL N_PROB RPS_REL RPS_RES RPS_UNC RPS RPSS RPSS_SMPL RPS_COMP
V11.0 : STAT : RHIST : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL (N_RANK) RANK_[0-9]*
V11.0 : STAT : PHIST : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL BIN_SIZE (N_BIN) BIN_[0-9]*
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9 changes: 6 additions & 3 deletions docs/Users_Guide/appendixC.rst
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Expand Up @@ -470,6 +470,7 @@ Mean Error (ME)
---------------

Called "ME" in CNT output :numref:`table_PS_format_info_CNT`
Called "ME_OERR", "ME_GE_OBS", and "ME_LT_OBS" in ECNT output :numref:`table_ES_header_info_es_out_ECNT`

The Mean Error, ME, is a measure of overall bias for continuous variables; in particular ME = Bias. It is defined as

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1008,11 +1009,13 @@ Bias Ratio

Called "BIAS_RATIO" in ECNT output :numref:`table_ES_header_info_es_out_ECNT`

The bias ratio (BIAS_RATIO) is computed when verifying an ensemble against gridded analyses or point observations. It is defined as the mean error (ME) of ensemble member values greater than or equal to the observation value divided by the mean absolute error (MAE) of ensemble member values less than the observation value.
The bias ratio (BIAS_RATIO) is computed when verifying an ensemble against gridded analyses or point observations. It is defined as the mean error (ME) of ensemble member values greater than or equal to the observation value to which they are matched divided by the absolute value of the mean error (ME) of ensemble member values less than the observation values.

.. math:: \text{BIAS_RATIO} = \frac{ \frac{ \sum_{f_i >= o_i} f_i - o_i }{ \text{count}(f_i >= o_i) } }{ \frac{ | \sum_{f_i < o_i} f_i - o_i | }{ \text{count}(f_i < o_i) } }
.. math:: \text{BIAS_RATIO} = \frac{ \text{ME}_{f >= o} }{ |\text{ME}_{f < o}| }

TODO: Define the perfect score and advice on interpretation.
A perfect forecast has ME = 0. Since BIAS_RATIO is the ratio of the high bias ME (ME_GE_OBS) and the absolute value of the low bias ME (ME_LT_OBS), a perfect forecast has BIAS_RATIO = 0/0, which is undefined. In practice, the high and low bias ME values are unlikely to be 0.

The range for BIAS_RATIO is 0 to infinity. A score of 1 indicates that the magnitude of the average high and low biases are eqaul. A score greater than 1 indicates that the average high bias is larger than the magnitude of the average low bias. A score less than 1 indicates the opposite behavior.

IGN
---
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14 changes: 13 additions & 1 deletion docs/Users_Guide/ensemble-stat.rst
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Expand Up @@ -625,7 +625,19 @@ The format of the STAT and ASCII output of the Ensemble-Stat tool are described
- The Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (empirical distribution) adjusted by subtracting 1/2(m) times the mean absolute difference of the ensemble members (m is the ensemble size)
* - 42
- BIAS_RATIO
- Bias Ratio
- The Bias Ratio
* - 43
- N_GE_OBS
- The number of ensemble values greater than or equal to their observations
* - 44
- ME_GE_OBS
- The Mean Error of the ensemble values greater than or equal to their observations
* - 45
- N_LT_OBS
- The number of ensemble values less than their observations
* - 46
- ME_LT_OBS
- The Mean Error of the ensemble values less than or equal to their observations

.. _table_ES_header_info_es_out_RPS:

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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion internal/test_unit/hdr/met_11_0.hdr
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Expand Up @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ PJC : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_L
PRC : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL N_THRESH _VAR_
PSTD : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL N_THRESH BASER BASER_NCL BASER_NCU RELIABILITY RESOLUTION UNCERTAINTY ROC_AUC BRIER BRIER_NCL BRIER_NCU BRIERCL BRIERCL_NCL BRIERCL_NCU BSS BSS_SMPL _VAR_
ECLV : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL BASE N_PTS _VAR_
ECNT : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL N_ENS CRPS CRPSS IGN ME RMSE SPREAD ME_OERR RMSE_OERR SPREAD_OERR SPREAD_PLUS_OERR CRPSCL CRPS_EMP CRPSCL_EMP CRPSS_EMP CRPS_EMP_FAIR
ECNT : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL N_ENS CRPS CRPSS IGN ME RMSE SPREAD ME_OERR RMSE_OERR SPREAD_OERR SPREAD_PLUS_OERR CRPSCL CRPS_EMP CRPSCL_EMP CRPSS_EMP CRPS_EMP_FAIR BIAS_RATIO N_GE_OBS ME_GE_OBS N_LT_OBS ME_LT_OBS
RPS : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL N_PROB RPS_REL RPS_RES RPS_UNC RPS RPSS RPSS_SMPL RPS_COMP
RHIST : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL CRPS IGN N_RANK CRPSS SPREAD _VAR_
PHIST : VERSION MODEL DESC FCST_LEAD FCST_VALID_BEG FCST_VALID_END OBS_LEAD OBS_VALID_BEG OBS_VALID_END FCST_VAR FCST_UNITS FCST_LEV OBS_VAR OBS_UNITS OBS_LEV OBTYPE VX_MASK INTERP_MTHD INTERP_PNTS FCST_THRESH OBS_THRESH COV_THRESH ALPHA LINE_TYPE TOTAL BIN_SIZE N_BIN _VAR_
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