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cjabradshaw authored Sep 19, 2024
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<a href="https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.13451032"><img src="https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.13451032.svg" alt="DOI"></a>

## Focal manuscript
<a href="https://au.linkedin.com/in/alan-williams-7973a958">Williams, AN</a>, <a href="https://evolutionofculturaldiversity.anu.edu.au/our-people/ray-tobler/">R Tobler</a>, a href="https://experts.deakin.edu.au/42085-billy-griffiths">B Griffiths</a>, <a href="https://portfolio.jcu.edu.au/researchers/sean.ulm/">S Ulm</a>, <a href="https://www.flinders.edu.au/people/cody.nitschke">MC Nitschke</a>, <a href="https://portfolio.jcu.edu.au/researchers/michael.bird">MI Bird</a>, <a href="https://scholars.uow.edu.au/shane-ingrey">S Ingrey</a>, <a href="https://www.flinders.edu.au/people/frederik.saltre">F Saltré</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100076324899510">K Beller</a>, <a href="https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/ian-mcniven">IJ McNiven</a>, <a href="https://au.linkedin.com/in/nick-pitt-772440ba">N Pitt</a>, <a href="https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/lynette-russell-am">L Russell</a>, <a href="https://discover.utas.edu.au/Christopher.Wilson">C Wilson</a>, <a href="https://www.flinders.edu.au/people/corey.bradshaw">CJA Bradshaw</a>. <a href="">Large size of the Australian Indigenous population prior to its massive decline following European invasion</a>. In review
<a href="https://au.linkedin.com/in/alan-williams-7973a958">Williams, AN</a>, <a href="https://evolutionofculturaldiversity.anu.edu.au/our-people/ray-tobler/">R Tobler</a>, <a href="https://experts.deakin.edu.au/42085-billy-griffiths">B Griffiths</a>, <a href="https://portfolio.jcu.edu.au/researchers/sean.ulm/">S Ulm</a>, <a href="https://www.flinders.edu.au/people/cody.nitschke">MC Nitschke</a>, <a href="https://portfolio.jcu.edu.au/researchers/michael.bird">MI Bird</a>, <a href="https://scholars.uow.edu.au/shane-ingrey">S Ingrey</a>, <a href="https://www.flinders.edu.au/people/frederik.saltre">F Saltré</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100076324899510">K Beller</a>, <a href="https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/ian-mcniven">IJ McNiven</a>, <a href="https://au.linkedin.com/in/nick-pitt-772440ba">N Pitt</a>, <a href="https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/lynette-russell-am">L Russell</a>, <a href="https://discover.utas.edu.au/Christopher.Wilson">C Wilson</a>, <a href="https://www.flinders.edu.au/people/corey.bradshaw">CJA Bradshaw</a>. <a href="">Large size of the Australian Indigenous population prior to its massive decline following European invasion</a>. In review

## Abstract
Estimating the size of Indigenous (Aboriginal) populations in Australia prior to the impact of European colonial invasion is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation, as well as providing a baseline from which to anchor contemporary socio-economic and environmental management. Robust estimates of the population dynamics of pre-colonial Indigenous Australians are poor due to the early exposure to lethal diseases, extensive frontier violence, and a lack of any systematic censuses. Here we review ethnographic observations, archaeological and genetic reconstructions, and modelled carrying capacity using climate hindcasts, to infer Indigenous population size prior to colonial invasion. This allows us to estimate the number of excess deaths in post-colonial times. Congruency of the modelled (not reconstructions based on historical accounts) population size estimates suggests a bootstrapped median of 2.51 million people in the pre-colonial population (75% confidence interval: 1.13–4.41 million), or 0.33 people km<sup>-2</sup> (75% confidence interval: 0.15–0.57 km<sup>-2</sup>). For a median pre-colonial population of 2.51 million, approximately 32,500 excess deaths year<sup>-1</sup> (2.39 million deaths in total) would have had to occur over the late 18<sup>th</sup> and early 19<sup>th</sup> Centuries from colonial invasion-related mortality to arrive at the estimated population of 0.177–0.193 million by 1861 (i.e., to 7–8% of the median pre-colonial population). These findings highlight the major impacts of invasion experienced by Indigenous Australians, and demonstrate a remarkable story of survival, resilience, and recovery over the past 235 years. However, even today, the Indigenous population remains at only ~ one-third of its median pre-colonial size, with parity to pre-invasion numbers only likely to be achieved by 2050 at the current rate of increase.
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