Replies: 16 comments 19 replies
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Thanks for putting all this together. It is nice to see the progress Bisq is making towards repaying the security incident victims, and good to know that it's profit in terms of BSQ issued / burnt is healthy. I think a comptroller role would be a great addition to Bisq. I have thought for a while that Bisq could do with a Finance Director role which I guess is pretty much along the same lines of what you propose. I think useful elements of the role would be:
I think for this role to be successful their needs to be an agreed vision for Bisq. Then conversions can take place on how best to achieve it. For example:
I would be happy to take help get this role started. However, I have no formal financial qualifications. I do run a business that was in need of a financial director and decided to educate myself on some aspects of the role as I was too tight to pay for the fees involved for having a financial director for a couple of days a month!! I do now now buy in this service so have a bit of experience of what is involved when you receive professional advice. |
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@cbeams Here are a few screenshots (or run the PR #5156): From what I can see we get about 10k BSQ burned per month. Here are the 2 addresses used by the BM: We would need to grab the tx data and bring it into a speadsheet/chart to see how much BTC fees we received over certain time periods. So if the BTC fee numbers above are more or less correct, it would mean we have earned in average 14k USD with BTC fee and 10K USD with BSQ fees. BTC fees from traders would have been the double so 28k. The ration BTC fee to BSQ fee would be 26% BSQ fee and 74% BTC fee. The opposite as our goal. From your number of the victims data we get: 496 USD/ day -> 1 months: 14880 USD/month Good thing is that trend of the last 4 months is pretty strong increasing from 7000 BSQ in Oct to 21500 BSQ in Jan: |
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Another important metric is the tradde volume. It was 53M USD in 2020. I will add to the chart an update for the numbers in the text fields according to the timeline filter so we can get total numbers for the given period as well. |
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FYI some numbers on BSQ fees from the last 4 cycles. BSQ rates are taken from the proposals of the subsequent cycle.
(should go without saying, but BSQ trading fees denominated in BTC are approximate since BSQ/BTC rate is an average) My opinion is there should be a good foundation of data available first. @chimp1984's work looks like it will go a long way in helping. In addition to the overall numbers, my initial concept included details on what exactly issuance went toward and how it affected trade volume over time. I think that's a critical part of any analysis of Bisq finances. It's not particularly difficult to get some of this data, but it's tedious to put it all together, consistently, in a way that makes it informative. Whoever takes on this role will have this issue. The remaining tasks to automate reporting (as discussed last year) and make the information we have useful are largely technical and beyond my ability. Therefore I think a better use of time would be to get whatever resources are needed to complete a dashboard integrated with mempool.space as proposed in project 41 done. |
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This is all great. @pazza83, wonderful to hear you'd be up for getting this new role started. Here are my thoughts on how to do it minimally and manageably:
I think a lot of the value is in helping us to frame things correctly. How should we think about the DAO's financials? How do we turn raw data about trading fees, BSQ supply, etc, into enlightening and actionable information? Getting everybody (users, contributors, stakeholders) on the same page about these things will be really powerful. So practically speaking, I'd suggest working toward consensus on those first key metrics here in this conversation, then post a proposal to create the new role, including initial rights and duties, bonding requirements (if any), a task list of stuff that will need to be done, e.g. creating a role issue, wiki doc and GH team for the role, and then just go for it implementing accounting and reporting on those metrics in whatever way makes the most sense. Once this kind of foundation in place, the role could be handed off to someone with even more domain experience to refine it, take it to the next level, etc. A lot of the value in this initial phase is just getting the ball rolling and establishing things, pushing past initial inertia, and you've proven very good at that, @pazza83, so certainly have my vote if you'd like to do it. So, to everyone: what do you think the most important 3–5 accounting / financial metrics would be? For me, the first would be a single, USD-denominated monthly revenue number. Basically the number I was trying to get at in my original post that started this discussion. The Bisq DAO's "top line", if you will. We would naturally want to be able to drill down from that top line number to see details on how much of it is coming from BTC trading fees, BSQ trading fees, etc, but it would be so helpful to have a single, simple, rolled up number we can trust that tells us how much revenue Bisq is bringing in. Of course, it follows that the second most important number would be our bottom line, showing how much (if any) is left over after expenses (including BTC victim repayments, BSQ issuance, etc). I think it's a very interesting challenge to figure out how to make sense of all this. It's anything but "boring, run of the mill accounting" when considering all the nuances of the Bisq DAO and the various unprecedented ways in which this organization runs. |
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Btw in my chart I use always the average USD value of the selected time interval (e.g. day/week/month/year) for converting btc or bsq values to USD. |
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The 0.8% trade fee makes sense. I think it would be good to choose a denomination for Bisq's unit of account. My preference would be to primarily account for things in BTC. Growth in trade volume / revenue could then be measured in terms of BTC. Fiat could then be applied secondarily to the figures to give comparisons.
I agree, that this will be a job that would be better if automated. I wonder if doing this manually first could help to guide the process as to what information is important to display. I think there are potentially a number of ways to account for the financial aspects of the DAO and it would be good to consolidate a standard way to account for the financials and them implement this into any future automation.
I agree, I think keeping things simple would be best.
Understood thanks for explaining the distinction between roles. I do think there does need to be some discussion about finances and strategy to achieve agreed objectives, hopefully when the DAO financials are regularly updated it will allow for this discussion to occur.
Agreed
Sounds good to me. I think prior to making a proposal I would like to have a go at creating some accounts. I think the process of creating them would help me answer the following:
I agree it would be good to agree some key metrics in this thread to ensure the data gathered is of use.
Sounds good. Happy to get started and then pass over to someone with more financial prowess than myself.
I agree it top line revenue should be included as a metric. However, I think revenue should be BTC-denominated for the reasons:
I think this is the most important metric. Turnover is vanity profit is sanity but cash is king. With regards cash is king. A third metric to measure is cash flow. Essentially each month is Bisq expecting to burn less or more BSQ than it is issuing.
Yes, I think it would be really interesting, the tokenomics involved are fascinating. I think I would like to apply standard accounting techniques to Bisq and see how far they get me and then see what needs adjusting to make something that works for Bisq. |
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Profit / loss statement (measured in BTC) Looking back over a given time period, month, quarter, year. Did Bisq make BTC or lose BTC over the given period. Balance sheet (measured in BTC) The sum of the DAO's assets BSQ, minus and liabilities (eg outstanding security incident repayments), plus any debtors (eg confirmed future donations). Cashflow forecasts (measured in BTC) Looking forward over a given time period, month, quarter, year. Does Bisq expect to make BTC or lose BTC over the given period. BSQ/BTC All things being equal, if Bisq is successful* BSQ will rise in comparison to BTC as it increases it's market share. *success is subjective, but in my definition I would measure success as the above (all things being equal). Things not being equal could be:
All the above would have an impact on the BSQ/BTC price, but may or may not impact the balance sheet (health of the DAO). |
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@pazza83, in general your comments and plans above sound good to me. Please speak up if there's anything you need along the way. One difference, however, is that I think it's pretty important to continue denominating Bisq's finances in USD, for the same reasons that we currently denominate compensation requests in USD. Like it or not, USD simply is the global unit of account, and if we don't denominate in it, then we end up forcing everyone interacting with the DAO to continually do these kinds of conversions in their heads. I would love to see reporting on all key numbers done in BTC as well as USD, but I don't see how we can escape the need for and practical utility of denominating in USD so long as BTC continues to experience anything like its current levels of volatility. |
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@cbeams wrote
@pazza83 wrote:
In general, I think these are fine suggestions. One way to make sure we land on the most useful set of initial metrics would be to express requirements for them as questions that different types of BSQ users need to be able to answer, e.g.:
These are just a sketch, the first few things that come to mind, but you get the idea: these requirements are expressed strictly as what information people need to know, and they avoid specifying exactly how to provide it. The latter is important, but the former is most important. If we're clear about the what, the how will more easily follow. This approach would allow us to validate that the metrics we're implementing are the right ones by completing the following sentence:
As some readers will know, Agile development teams formulate these kind of requirements in a similar way, called user stories that are structured like this:
Applying this structure to our domain, we might have a user story like this:
We could then propose a particular metric or set of metrics that meet that requirement and go about implementing it. It may often be the case that the "standard" accounting techniques like balance sheets and cash flow statements etc, are the best way to meet these requirements, but it's worth remembering that there's no particular way that we are forced to do our reporting. We shouldn't reinvent any wheels, but we are also free to structure this information in whichever ways we think will actually be most useful to current and potential BSQ users. In any case, I don't mean to add any fluff or unnecessary process here. It's just important that we focus on what truly matters, and most of us (myself included) aren't deeply familiar with accounting and corporate financials, so it can be easy to lose the plot talking about the different kinds of reports and metrics. Framing things first in terms of real world use cases should help ensure we deliver financial reporting that's actually useful. So, to everyone: think about your own relationship to BSQ and Bisq DAO financials in general. What are the real-world questions you need answers to? What are your "BSQ user stories"? |
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I want to comment on some of the proposed financial statements. Bisq is a very different beast from typical legacy organizations, and trying to squeeze out typical legacy financial statements from DAO numbers doesn't make sense to me. Balance sheetI'm not sure Bisq can have a balance sheet. How can such a thing be constructed? The project has no assets and no liabilities. Typically you get an equity value (book value) by subtracting liabilities from assets. The market's take on this book value of equity is what you see reflected in stock prices as market value of equity (aka market capitalization). Bisq's liabilities are not liabilities in the traditional sense—they are merely a summation of repayments that the DAO has collectively promised to pay out of future revenues. Typically, liabilities are legally-enforceable liens on assets, but this isn't the case with Bisq since it has no assets. This makes repayments expenses, not liabilities, which makes them income statement items (like all baseline Bisq finance metrics; more on this below). So Bisq is in a bit of a weird spot because it cannot have a book value of equity. But it can (and does) have a market value of its "equity"—market capitalization. I put "equity" in quotes because Bisq's market capitalization is really just a summation of the market value of all BSQ held by sovereign individuals, like shares of stock. But unlike shares of stock, BSQ tokens signify value for their owners, not the originating entity. The market value of the Bisq project itself is indeterminate, but the total value of all BSQ (what we call market capitalization) is a good proxy for the value of its software, network, community, etc. These are the only semblances of assets in Bisq land—but notice how these items are all intangible and not fit for systematic valuation. Cash flow statementA balance sheet is a snapshot of a company's assets and liabilities at a point in time, and a cash flow statement explains the difference between snapshots. So logically speaking if Bisq cannot have a balance sheet, it cannot have cash flow statements either. More intuitively—measuring cash flow only makes sense if it's possible to go broke. Bisq cannot go broke, as in, it cannot ever run out of cash. It has no cash and infinite cash at the same time. Sure the DAO can become unsustainable, in that the market can decide to value BSQ so low that the DAO can no longer sustain itself, but this is not a black-and-white determination that any financial statement can make. It's a decision the market will make if/when it wants to. Therefore having a cash flow statement doesn't make sense to me either. Income statementThis is the only legacy financial statement that makes any sense to maintain, and really, the main one from which all other metrics should flow. Bisq issues BSQ every cycle and it burns BSQ every cycle. This fits well within the profit/loss paradigm. The fact that Bisq financial metrics can only be tracked in this manner—as value coming in and value going out—should not be surprising. After all Bisq is just software, and the whole point of the DAO is to avoid value from sitting at any intermediary points at any stage during the transfer from consumer to producer. Tracking the quantity and flow of resources in such intermediary points is what balance sheets and cash flow statements fundamentally do, which is another way of understanding why they don't make sense to have here. Measuring issuance and burn on a per-cycle basis also makes it possible to analyze activity in relation to trading activity, governance, and work done (i.e., exact contributions and improvements). Profit and loss can be forecasted, of course, so such statements can be backward-looking and forward-looking. Time framesCycles seem like the only reasonable time frame for profit/loss analysis because issuance is done on a per-cycle basis. Anything else would result in inconsistent data. You can of course do months and quarters and years in terms of groups of cycles. ClosingI think many of the ideas in this thread are great, but if we're going to use certain terms, I want to make sure it's clear what the meaning of those terms are and what they mean in the context of this project. Base metrics must be understood properly in order to create second-order metrics and any further analyses. |
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I am not sure if that fits well into the discussion thread but I think it would be good to share all the details about trade fee and burned BSQ as it was a bit chaotic in the past and its quite complex. Initially we used the same donation (receiver) address for the BTC trade fees and for the trade fund from the delayed payout tx (DPT). Now that is separated. Trade fees in BTC can be sent to following addresses:
The funds from the old burningmen is sent from time to time to the new BM. To refund the victims from the security incident we added a field to the filter message where the address and the ratio of the loss is defined. Here are the addresses and after the Once that is refunded the filter will be updated to leave the @burningman3 as only receiver. If a user pays the trade fee in BTC the first output of the maker fee tx or taker fee tx is the fee payment and the receiver address must be one listed above. Also the min. BTC fee must match the one defined in DAO param (default and current 5000 sat). If the fee is paid in BSQ the first output is usually the BSQ change output (could be also the case that there is none if the BSQ input was exactly the fee or the change would be below dust. To verify such a trade fee tx one can lookup the first output in the BSQ explorer. If it is not found there then lookup the inputs in the BSQ explorer. If also not found it was not a BSQ fee tx. The tx has to be confirmed before the BSQ explorer recognizes it. To calculate the revenue is a bit complex specially for historical data as we did not had separated fee and DPT funds. Another issue is that the reimbursement requests have not been used initially (was part of compensation requests) and then only partially as the limit of the DAO parameter was low and it required a few cycles to increase that limit. In the new charts I added historical data from the DAO requests to correct that distribution. The BSQ burning via I think the best way to extract the BTC fee value is by using the received funds over a certain time perion at @burningman3's receiver addresses. It would be good if one could provide a script with API requests for each relevant time period (e.g. received BTC per month). Another option is to add that to the app via an API call so all tx data gets into the charts and one can zoom in or filter any time period (with shipping historical data so the API requests don't get too heavy). Best would be to have all the available addresses in a multi-series chart (also the victims addresses), so one can see quickly if there would be any anomality and the frequency and volume sent to the outdated addresses. A further complication is which currency is used and which exchange rates. In the new charts I added USD values to all relevant data and used the average Bisq BTC/USD rate from the same time period for conversion. Another related data is the fee adjustment (via DAO voting). Not sure if that add much value but it could be helpful to see how the % value of the trade fees and the distribution of BSQ and BTC fees have developed over time. |
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I fear there has not been any progress on that topic. It is still basically impossible to find out how much fees in BSQ and in BTC Bisq earns and if it is in the right proportion to the trade volume. Is there anyone who is willing to take that task as priority and gets that solved in a committed time scope? I think to track the BTC fees should not be too hard. Make a script to track all inputs on all donation addresses (it is now separated for fee and refund agent cases). BSQ fees are also available either via BSQ explorer or Bisq app charts. Trade volume as well. Those 3 sources combined should give a good picture how much fees are paid over time. As trade volume is volatile it would be good to have different time scales (day/week/month). Also denomination should be in BSQ/BTC/USD so BTC/USD and BSQ/BTC volatility can be addressed. |
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Following discussion earlier in the year. I prepared some financials based on standard accounting practices. Please note I don't have a background in finance. Here are copies of what I produced for the fiscal year 20/21 (01.04.20 - 31.03.21) Originally I included the total market cap of BSQ as an asset for the DAO, but based on negative feedback from @cbeams and @m52go on accounting this way I removed it in the above accounts. My observations My observations from doing the accounts are:
Answering questions for contributors, investors, and traders When sharing with @cbeams he felt the accounts did not answer the question posed here: #5171 (comment)
I agree these accounts do not answer the above questions. I think the answers to many of these questions can be found in Bisq. Maybe the information is best displayed in an automated way. Happy to hear any comments / questions. |
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I have made a proposal for a new Comptroller role |
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Comptroller role has been created. Reports will be issued on a monthly cycle. |
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I just took a few minutes to run some rough numbers on BTC trading fees based on our victim repayments so far. The exercise evolved into a more general attempt to calculate total monthly revenues. This is all really rough, and BSQ trading fee revenues are missing entirely, but perhaps this could be the start of tracking these numbers more rigorously in the future. Please follow along if you're interested, and please speak up if you'd like to help formalize the accounting here (this could become its own dedicated role under the DAO).
This is from the security incident victim repayment report I posted 5 days ago (2021-02-03) at bisq-network/projects#31 (comment):
And this is the same report, run today (2021-02-08):
Summary: Once victim repayments are complete, probably sometime between June and October, we'll have somewhere in the range of 14–22K USD worth of BTC liquidity come back online every month for the burning man to use in buying up BSQ. That's another couple full-time dev salaries!
Ok, so that's how much of BTC trade fee revenues are tied up in victim repayments. Now, let's look at the last few months' worth of the burning man's BSQ purchases. I'm doing this as a way of calculating the rest of our BTC trade fee revenues.
These numbers are from the BM's most recent trade history csv posted at bisq-network/roles#80 (comment), covering all BSQ purchases made between 2020-11-08 through 2021-01-24.
I've dumped these numbers into a google sheet at at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E91nPKhkencv119n79ea2r4gEHQ4Qt4m23Y0En-FX9I/edit?usp=sharing.
From that sheet, here's a quick chart showing how much BTC the burning man spent during each (Sunday 3p CET) trading window during that date range:
Also from that sheet:
So (and this number is really rough, probably too high), there is 105K USD worth of BTC already being used to buy up BSQ every month.
If we add these numbers up:
BTC revenue freed up after victim repayments are complete: 14-22K USD
BTC revenue already being spent per month on BSQ: ~105K USD
That puts us at around 120K USD worth of BTC per month available for BSQ purchases once victim repayments are complete later this year.
The only major piece of revenue information not calculated here is our current monthly BSQ revenues in USD terms. If someone could add that into the mix (however roughly), it would be appreciated.
I threw the above together in 45 minutes or so. So don't trust any of it as particularly well-thought out or accurate. Thoughts and feedback are most welcome.
If anyone wants to take on the kind of comptroller role the DAO needs, please know that you'll need to be highly independent and self-motivated. Take a look at @pazza83's recent Payment Method Maintainer cycle reports (like this one) to get a sense of what it looks like to really take ownership of a role. If you're up for this kind of responsibility and you love running the numbers, please speak up!
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