Merge branch 'main' into 2.1-negative-net-flows

ONEcampaign · Apr 15, 2024 · bb155a9 · bb155a9
2 parents a20f80c + 387f576
commit bb155a9
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Showing 6 changed files with 47 additions and 25 deletions.
diff --git a/output/chart_1_1.csv b/output/chart_1_1.csv
@@ -22,9 +22,9 @@ Developing countries,2019,100848423070.40002,
 Developing countries,2020,149424205779.19998,
 Developing countries,2021,98510059099.00002,
 Developing countries,2022,51406101384.2,51406101384.2
-Developing countries,2023,,-21548519402.333374
-Developing countries,2024,,-50546702741.11678
-Developing countries,2025,,-17922724633.3993
+Developing countries,2023,,-21444458971.533375
+Developing countries,2024,,-50474427554.61678
+Developing countries,2025,,-17865922210.3993
 Low income,2000,6979069145.5,
 Low income,2001,7502707071.3,
 Low income,2002,9938232026.2,
@@ -48,9 +48,9 @@ Low income,2019,44556702957.6,
 Low income,2020,50183722528.6,
 Low income,2021,36622590659.5,
 Low income,2022,34587927336.2,34587927336.2
-Low income,2023,,28364363722.266666
-Low income,2024,,24804158358.683304
-Low income,2025,,26513277885.06658
+Low income,2023,,28468424153.066666
+Low income,2024,,24876433545.183304
+Low income,2025,,26570080308.06658
 Lower middle income,2000,1824424208.5999997,
 Lower middle income,2001,828924233.7999996,
 Lower middle income,2002,2703727390.7,
@@ -178,9 +178,9 @@ Asia,2019,66046812230.69999,
 Asia,2020,51207209621.799995,
 Asia,2021,45631011042.700005,
 Asia,2022,7886931731.300001,7886931731.300001
-Asia,2023,,-11099918754.599985
-Asia,2024,,-36763162600.30055
-Asia,2025,,-18345542017.09953
+Asia,2023,,-10995858323.799984
+Asia,2024,,-36690887413.80055
+Asia,2025,,-18288739594.09953
 Afghanistan,2006,2992784946.2,
 Afghanistan,2007,4594938120.6,
 Afghanistan,2008,4702888058.6,
@@ -2816,9 +2816,6 @@ Syria,2017,10417863675.5,
 Syria,2018,10015404769.7,
 Syria,2019,10132758298.6,
 Syria,2020,10040737648.5,
-Syria,2023,,-104060430.8
-Syria,2024,,-72275186.5
-Syria,2025,,-56802423.0
 Tajikistan,2000,84554859.9,
 Tajikistan,2001,127627186.1,
 Tajikistan,2002,146203549.2,

diff --git a/output/inflows_outflows_projected_country.parquet b/output/inflows_outflows_projected_country.parquet
diff --git a/output/key_numbers.json b/output/key_numbers.json
@@ -5,25 +5,25 @@
     "dev_countries_nt_latest_value": "$51.41 bn",
     "dev_countries_nt_change_2021_2022_value": "$-47.104 bn",
     "dev_countries_nt_change_2021_2022_percentage": "-47.8%",
-    "dev_countries_nt_2024": "$-50.547 bn",
-    "dev_countries_nt_2022_2024_change": "$-101.96 bn",
-    "dev_countries_nt_2022_2024_change_pct": "-198.3%",
+    "dev_countries_nt_2024": "$-50.474 bn",
+    "dev_countries_nt_2022_2024_change": "$-101.88 bn",
+    "dev_countries_nt_2022_2024_change_pct": "-198.2%",
     "umic_nt_2021_value": "$-8.29 bn",
     "umic_nt_population": "905 million",
     "lmic_nt_2024_value": "$-29.83 bn",
     "lmic_nt_population": "3.4 billion",
     "nnt_count_2022": "26 out of 118 countries",
     "nnt_countries_total_value_2022": "$-47.89 bn",
     "nnt_2022_countries_population": "1299 million",
-    "nnt_count_2023": "39 out of 119 countries",
-    "nnt_countries_total_value_2023": "$-101.42 bn",
-    "nnt_count_2024": "41 out of 119 countries",
-    "nnt_countries_total_value_2024": "$-124.67 bn",
-    "nnt_count_2025": "45 out of 119 countries",
-    "nnt_countries_total_value_2025": "$-101.82 bn",
+    "nnt_count_2023": "38 out of 118 countries",
+    "nnt_countries_total_value_2023": "$-101.31 bn",
+    "nnt_count_2024": "40 out of 118 countries",
+    "nnt_countries_total_value_2024": "$-124.59 bn",
+    "nnt_count_2025": "44 out of 118 countries",
+    "nnt_countries_total_value_2025": "$-101.76 bn",
     "dev_countries_debt_service_2022": "$-293.66 bn",
-    "dev_countries_debt_service_projected_2023": "$-346.62 bn",
-    "dev_countries_debt_service_projected_2024": "$-358.44 bn",
+    "dev_countries_debt_service_projected_2023": "$-346.52 bn",
+    "dev_countries_debt_service_projected_2024": "$-358.37 bn",
     "china_lending_africa_average_2008_2021": "$8.9 bn",
     "china_lending_africa_2022": "$6.3 bn",
     "china_lending_africa_peak_year": 2016,

diff --git a/output/net_flow_projections_country.parquet b/output/net_flow_projections_country.parquet
diff --git a/output/net_flow_projections_group.parquet b/output/net_flow_projections_group.parquet
diff --git a/scripts/analysis/net_flow_projections.py b/scripts/analysis/net_flow_projections.py
@@ -169,9 +169,34 @@ def projected_netflows(inflows: pd.DataFrame, outflows: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Data
             index=[c for c in data.columns if c not in ["value", "indicator_type"]],
             columns="indicator_type",
             values="value",
-        )
+        ).reset_index()
+        # .fillna(0)
+    )
+
+    # Create grouped data at right level to check missing projections.
+    missing_projections_groups = data.loc[lambda d: d.year > 2022].groupby(
+        ["year", "country", "continent", "income_level"], dropna=False
+    )
+
+    # Check if inflow is missing for all values in group
+    missing_projections = (
+        missing_projections_groups["inflow"]
+        .apply(lambda x: x.isnull().all())
         .reset_index()
-        .fillna(0)
+        .filter(["year", "country", "inflow"])
+    )
+
+    # Merge missing projections back to data. Remove missing inflow projections
+    data = (
+        pd.merge(
+            data,
+            missing_projections,
+            on=["year", "country"],
+            how="left",
+            suffixes=("", "_m"),
+        )
+        .loc[lambda d: d.inflow_m != True]
+        .drop(columns=["inflow_m"])
     )
 
     # Group by country