Technique advancements

[timkeeling]

Here is a note from Nakowa to the owner of Just-Dice on his strategy that won him 1.3m USD:
http://plaxant.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Dt6AJaB.png

and the article it's from:
http://plaxant.com/just-dices-international-whale-watching/

What do you think of this? Is there a way to incorporate these ideas into the bot?

[KgBC]

will read later :)

[KgBC]

As I read the strategy, it is based on the assumption that there should be a probability higher 50% that a win follows on a lose. This is not true, as the next random number doesn't depend on the random number before.

The graph shows - in short - how the system is used, is that correct?

I'm sure it could be implemented, as for now it does not make sense for me. Your opinion?

[geekium]

nakowa's strategy will not make you win another million dollar. He's playing bold and with some luck winning a bit more than losing. If anyone would like to risk that much(nakowa win lost ～4000BTC) and stay calm to play on despite the huge losts and wins, he would deserve the fortune.

Maybe it's a gambler's fallcy that thinking a hi following a lo, but I think it significantly stop the game losing too much rounds in a row.
If using the bot to choose hi or lo randomly, when playing on 49.5% chance 100 round, it's very possible to lose 6 rounds in a row (do the math by this -LOG(rounds*chance + 1)/LOG(1-chance) ).

So, instead of let the bot choose hi or lo randomly, maybe it's better to use the output of last bet's number to guess to bet on hi or lo, ie. if the lucky number is already 5 times below 49.5, I would like to bet hi. This would be called the "rolling strategy".

rolling strategy suggestion:
if last two(or X) output is higher/lower than the target number, the place the bet on the lower/higher target, and multiply the bet with y(multiplier ) time.
rolling strategy sample:
if the lucky number is higher than target number 6 times, then bet on lo, multiply the bet 4 times.
(rolling strategy would like to be configable in multiple conditions)

For comparison, the martingale strategy would be called a betting strategy.

[KgBC]

Thanks for your explanations, I'll implement a configurable hi/lo betting. I think of options for random|always-hi|always-lo|rolling.

To make the rolling strategy configurable: do you have links explaining how that works exactly? That would be a great addition I think.

[geekium]

On the rolling strategy:
How about a hi/lo percentage instead of always hi?
If the hi/lo is base on the last two/ third/.../ ten output lucky numbers is better. I've do some stat on the just-dice algorithm's output but by now all the strategy seems to not better than a random guess. But still want to catch the lucky number and if the number is too much biasd than a random distribution, then I could make a good guess and use a corresponding rolling strategy in that case.

On the strategy math:
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/57222/better-than-random
http://blog.xkcd.com/2010/02/09/math-puzzle/comment-page-1/#comment-17804

I think the math works but don't know how to apply to just-dice rolling guess.

[geekium]

P.S.
nakowa did not use a martingale strategy and can triple the initial amount(it's said with initial 500BTC and end up winning ~2500BTC, 200BTC for 500BTC....).
In contrast, martingale strategy can hardly double the initial amount without risking a lot(often go bust).
Maybe it's nakowa's luck, or may be it's by his secret rolling strategy!

With a good rolling strategy, one can have a good luck more than 100% ( shows in the stats tab on just-dice.com, don't know how just-dice calculate the luck, I have a 102.72% for 500 rounds on a new account ). Only with a good rolling strategy so that to overcome the 1% house edge.

So, hoping to implement the rolling strategy and simulate it using the bot.

[KgBC]

Thanks for the links, They do not state anything about two or more randoms in a row as I see.

Anyhow: I think letting the user choose the strategy would be smart, so I'll implement some options here :)

Check back soon and think about some test BTC (or beer) in the meanwhile: 1CDjWb7zupTfQihc6sMeDvPmUHkfeMhC83

Thanks :)

[geekium]

With hand played for 2000 round and my luck drop to 96.83% ;-(
Lost most of my BTC, feeling sick...but still want to know it the bot can do better job than my bad luck.
Tips sent.

[KgBC]

Did u use the bot and if: what config? Thanks for the tip!

[KgBC]

I just implemented a new config option:

"hi_lo"      : 'always_hi', #random, always_hi, always_lo,

you see there is no rolling for now, as it will need more work. I need to read the last lucky number (and I'll read some more values to fix #14) and make the bet history available. Then the bot will get some variants of "rolling" modes.

The current changes aren't commited right now, I've to test them first :)

[KgBC]

Feature request mameise on bitcointalk.org:

switch hi/lo on win

[KgBC]

implemented in next version.

"hi_lo"      : 'switch_on_win',

[KgBC]

'rolling' modes will be implemented in 'Barbudi' release. I'll keep that open for that request.