DRIVERS OF OBSERVED WARMING

Figure number: Figure 3.8 From the IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report: Chapter 3

Description:

Assessed contributions to observed warming, and supporting lines of evidence. Shaded bands show assessed likely ranges of temperature change in GSAT, 2010-2019 relative to 1850-1900, attributable to net human influence, well-mixed greenhouse gases, other human forcings (aerosols, ozone, and land-use change), natural forcings, and internal variability, and the 5-95% range of observed warming. Bars show 5-95% ranges based on (left to right) Haustein et al. (2017), Gillett et al. (2021) and Ribes et al. (2021), and crosses show the associated best estimates. No 5-95% ranges were provided for the Haustein et al. (2017) greenhouse gas or other human forcings contributions. The Ribes et al. (2021) results were updated using a revised natural forcing time series, and the Haustein et al. (2017) results were updated using HadCRUT5. The Chapter 7 best estimates and ranges are derived using assessed forcing time series and a two-layer energy balance model as described in Section 7.3.5.3. Coloured symbols show the simulated responses to the forcings concerned in each of the models indicated.

Author list:

• Gillett, N: ECCC, Canada, [email protected], npgillett
• Kirchmeier-Young, M: ECCC, Canada
• Cowtan, K: University of York, UK

ESMValTool Branch:

• ESMValTool-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: ar6_chapter_3_nathan

Recipe & diagnostics:

Recipe used: recipes/recipe_gsat_attribute.yml

Diagnostic used: ipcc_ar6/fig3_8.py

Expected image path:

This is the path of the image relative to the automatically generated ESMValTool output location:

• recipe_gsat_attribute_YYYYMMDD_HHMMSS/plots/gillett20_figs/fig3_8/fig3_8.png

Recipe generations tools:

N/A

Ancillary figures and datasets:

In addition to the main figure, the diagnostic was used to output the csv file which was afterwards was used by TSU to create FAQ 3.1 Fig 1 and SPM Fig 1 panel (b).

Additional datasets:

HadCRUT4 HadCRUT.4.6.0.0.median.nc file should be located in esmvaltool auxiliary directory: it can be downloaded from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/download.html

In the same auxiliary directory, an AR6_GSAT.csv file with GSAT timeseries from Chapter 2 should be present.

Another non-esmvaltool preprocessed dataset in esmvaltool auxiliary directory is CNRM-CM6-1-5x5-sftlf.nc, a CNRM-CM6-1 sftlf file regridded with cdo onto 5*5 degrees greed.

Software description:

• ESMValTool environment file: IPCC_environments/esmvaltool_ar6_attribution_conda_environment.yml
• pip file: IPCC_environments/esmvaltool_ar6_attribution_pip_environment.txt
• Other software used: cdo==1.5.3

Hardware description:

Internal ECCC-CCCma machine lxwrk3.

** The documentation was created by Chapter 3 Chapter Scientist Elizaveta Malinina (email: [email protected], githubid: malininae). Please, contact Elizaveta in case any questions in documentation arise.