25. Pandas结合Sklearn实现泰坦尼克存活率预测.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Pandas结合Sklearn实现泰坦尼克存活率预测"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### 实例目标：实现泰坦尼克存活预测\n",
    "\n",
    "处理步骤：  \n",
    "1、输入数据：使用Pandas读取训练数据(历史数据，特点是已经知道了这个人最后有没有活下来)  \n",
    "2、训练模型：使用Sklearn训练模型  \n",
    "3、使用模型：对于一个新的不知道存活的人，预估他存活的概率   "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### 步骤1：读取训练数据"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>PassengerId</th>\n",
       "      <th>Survived</th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Name</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sex</th>\n",
       "      <th>Age</th>\n",
       "      <th>SibSp</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parch</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ticket</th>\n",
       "      <th>Fare</th>\n",
       "      <th>Cabin</th>\n",
       "      <th>Embarked</th>\n",
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       "  </thead>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Braund, Mr. Owen Harris</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>A/5 21171</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.2500</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>38.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>PC 17599</td>\n",
       "      <td>71.2833</td>\n",
       "      <td>C85</td>\n",
       "      <td>C</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Heikkinen, Miss. Laina</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>26.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>STON/O2. 3101282</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.9250</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)</td>\n",
       "      <td>female</td>\n",
       "      <td>35.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>113803</td>\n",
       "      <td>53.1000</td>\n",
       "      <td>C123</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>Allen, Mr. William Henry</td>\n",
       "      <td>male</td>\n",
       "      <td>35.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>373450</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.0500</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>S</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   PassengerId  Survived  Pclass  \\\n",
       "0            1         0       3   \n",
       "1            2         1       1   \n",
       "2            3         1       3   \n",
       "3            4         1       1   \n",
       "4            5         0       3   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                Name     Sex   Age  SibSp  \\\n",
       "0                            Braund, Mr. Owen Harris    male  22.0      1   \n",
       "1  Cumings, Mrs. John Bradley (Florence Briggs Th...  female  38.0      1   \n",
       "2                             Heikkinen, Miss. Laina  female  26.0      0   \n",
       "3       Futrelle, Mrs. Jacques Heath (Lily May Peel)  female  35.0      1   \n",
       "4                           Allen, Mr. William Henry    male  35.0      0   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Parch            Ticket     Fare Cabin Embarked  \n",
       "0      0         A/5 21171   7.2500   NaN        S  \n",
       "1      0          PC 17599  71.2833   C85        C  \n",
       "2      0  STON/O2. 3101282   7.9250   NaN        S  \n",
       "3      0            113803  53.1000  C123        S  \n",
       "4      0            373450   8.0500   NaN        S  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 2,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "df_train = pd.read_csv(\"./datas/titanic/titanic_train.csv\")\n",
    "df_train.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "***其中，Survived==1代表这个人活下来了、==0代表没活下来；其他的都是这个人的信息和当时的仓位、票务情况***"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parch</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   Pclass  Parch\n",
       "0       3      0\n",
       "1       1      0\n",
       "2       3      0\n",
       "3       1      0\n",
       "4       3      0"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# 我们只挑选两列，作为预测需要的特征\n",
    "feature_cols = ['Pclass', 'Parch']\n",
    "X = df_train.loc[:, feature_cols]\n",
    "X.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0    0\n",
       "1    1\n",
       "2    1\n",
       "3    1\n",
       "4    0\n",
       "Name: Survived, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 4,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# 单独提取是否存活的列，作为预测的目标\n",
    "y = df_train.Survived\n",
    "y.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### 步骤2：训练模型"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "//anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/sklearn/linear_model/logistic.py:432: FutureWarning: Default solver will be changed to 'lbfgs' in 0.22. Specify a solver to silence this warning.\n",
      "  FutureWarning)\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "LogisticRegression(C=1.0, class_weight=None, dual=False, fit_intercept=True,\n",
       "                   intercept_scaling=1, l1_ratio=None, max_iter=100,\n",
       "                   multi_class='warn', n_jobs=None, penalty='l2',\n",
       "                   random_state=None, solver='warn', tol=0.0001, verbose=0,\n",
       "                   warm_start=False)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 5,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression\n",
    "# 创建模型对象\n",
    "logreg = LogisticRegression()\n",
    "\n",
    "# 实现模型训练\n",
    "logreg.fit(X, y)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "0.6879910213243546"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 6,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "logreg.score(X, y)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### 步骤3：对于未知数据使用模型\n",
    "\n",
    "机器学习的核心目标，是使用模型预测未知的事物\n",
    "\n",
    "比如预测股票明天是涨还是跌、一套新的二手房成交价大概多少钱、用户打开APP最可能看那些视频等问题"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Pclass</th>\n",
       "      <th>Parch</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>54</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>27</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>438</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>98</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>43</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>437</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>86</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>167</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>678</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>6</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "     Pclass  Parch\n",
       "1         1      0\n",
       "54        1      1\n",
       "27        1      2\n",
       "438       1      4\n",
       "9         2      0\n",
       "98        2      1\n",
       "43        2      2\n",
       "437       2      3\n",
       "0         3      0\n",
       "7         3      1\n",
       "8         3      2\n",
       "86        3      3\n",
       "167       3      4\n",
       "13        3      5\n",
       "678       3      6"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 7,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# 找一个历史数据中不存在的数据\n",
    "X.drop_duplicates().sort_values(by=[\"Pclass\", \"Parch\"])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([1])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 8,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# 预测这个数据存活的概率\n",
    "logreg.predict([[2, 4]])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([[0.35053893, 0.64946107]])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 9,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "logreg.predict_proba([[2, 4]])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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