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KBO Prediction Model

image

Data Scraping

Note

Uses python3.6

Usage

In order to obtain the entire 2018 KBO baseball data as a JSON file, simply run the following.

from scrape import *
year = '2018'
months = ['03', '04', '05', '06', '07']
summaries = []
for month in months:
    summaries += MatchSummaryParser(year, month).parse()

matches = []
for summary in summaries:
    try:
	print(summary)
        matches.append(
            MatchDetailParser(
                summary.year,
                summary.month,
                summary.day,
                summary.get_away_team_name(),
                summary.get_home_team_name()
            ).parse()
        )
    except DetailDataNotFoundException:
        # this is most likely a double header game.
        pass

Baseball Terms Explained

summary.r : 점수

summary.b : 볼넷 + 사사구

summary.e : 팀 실수

summary.h : 안타

pitcher_info.at_bats : 상대한 타자 수

pitcher_info.hits : 맞은 안타 수

pitcher_info.bbhp : 던진 볼넷 + 사사구

pitcher_info.home_runs : 맞은 홈런 수

pitcher_info.strike_outs : 잡은 스트라이크 아웃 수

pitcher_info.at_bats : 상대한 타자 수

pitcher_info.scores_lost : 투수가 내준 점수

pitcher_info.errors : 투수 실수

pitcher_info.era : 투수 방어율

pitcher_info.innings : 던진 이닝 수. 단, 내림 처리 하였기 때문에 3 1/2, 2/3 모두 3으로 내림.

pitcher_info.wins : 투수의 시즌 승수

pitcher_info.loses : 투수의 시즌 패배 수

pitcher_info.saves : 투수의 시즌 세이브 수

pitcher_info.num_balls_thrown : 투수가 해당 경기 던진 공 수

pitcher_info.game_count : 투수의 시즌 등판 수

batter_info.at_bats : 타자가 해당 경기에 타석에 들어간 횟 수

batter_info.hits : 타자의 해당 게임 안타 수

batter_info.hra : 타자의 해당 경기 종료 시점의 타율

batter_info.rbi : 타자의 해당 경기 타점 (때려서 홈으로 불러 들여온 주자 수)

batter_info.runs : 타자의 해당 경기 득점 (본인이 홈을 밟은 수)

team_standing.draws : 종료 시점의 해당 팀의 무승부 수

team_standing.era : 종료 시점의 팀의 평균 방어율

team_standing.hra : 종료 시점의 팀의 평균 타율

team_standing.wra : 종료 시점의 팀의 평균 승률

team_standing.wins : 종료 시점의 팀의 승수

team_standing.loses : 종료 시점의 팀의 패수

team_standing.rank : 종료 시점의 팀의 랭킹

For example

some specific game's data (with some pitchers and batters omitted for brevity)

{
    "year": "2017",
    "month": "03",
    "day": "14",
    "away_team_name": "KT",
    "home_team_name": "SAMSUNG",
    "score_board": {
      "scores": {
        "away": [
          3,
          1,
          1,
          0,
          1,
          0,
          2,
          0,
          1
        ],
        "home": [
          0,
          0,
          0,
          0,
          1,
          0,
          0,
          0,
          0
        ]
      },
      "summary": {
        "away": {
          "r": 9,
          "b": 6,
          "e": 0,
          "h": 12
        },
        "home": {
          "r": 1,
          "b": 3,
          "e": 0,
          "h": 7
        }
      }
    },
    "pitcher_info": {
      "home": [
        {
          "at_bats": 11,
          "hits": 6,
          "bbhp": 3,
          "home_runs": 0,
          "strike_outs": 1,
          "scores_lost": 5,
          "errors": 5,
          "era": "15.00",
          "name": "\ucd5c\ucda9\uc5f0",
          "innings": "3",
          "wins": 0,
          "loses": 1,
          "saves": 0,
          "num_balls_thrown": 60,
          "game_count": 1
        }
      ],
      "away": [
        {
          "at_bats": 18,
          "hits": 6,
          "bbhp": 1,
          "home_runs": 0,
          "strike_outs": 1,
          "scores_lost": 1,
          "errors": 1,
          "era": "1.80",
          "name": "\ub85c\uce58",
          "innings": "5",
          "wins": 1,
          "loses": 0,
          "saves": 0,
          "num_balls_thrown": 72,
          "game_count": 1
        }
      ]
    },
    "batter_info": {
      "home": [
        {
          "at_bats": 2,
          "hits": 1,
          "hra": "0.500",
          "rbi": 1,
          "runs": 0,
          "name": "\ubc15\ud574\ubbfc"
        }
      ],
      "away": [
        {
          "at_bats": 3,
          "hits": 1,
          "hra": "0.333",
          "rbi": 0,
          "runs": 1,
          "name": "\uc774\ub300\ud615"
        }
      ]
    },
    "away_team_standing": {
      "draws": 0,
      "era": 5.53,
      "hra": 0.264,
      "wra": 0.373,
      "wins": 25,
      "loses": 42,
      "rank": 9,
      "name": "KT"
    },
    "home_team_standing": {
      "draws": 2,
      "era": 5.81,
      "hra": 0.265,
      "wra": 0.369,
      "wins": 24,
      "loses": 41,
      "rank": 10,
      "name": "SAMSUNG"
    }
  }
]

Prediction Model

The prediction model employs the notion of Deep Learning to predict the result from the data.

The scraped data is parsed in the formatter.py to follow the below format:

hometeam's data = The summary + standing of the team's previous k games # k is the usr input.
awayteam's data = The summary + standing of the team's previous k games

result of the game = [x, y] 

The builder.py constructs the neural network that takes in the above format of data to be trained and predict the result of the game.

When taking the individual team data, as we are not distinguishing the team specific statistics, auto encoder was used to get rid of such uncertain factors then passed on to the SeLU layers.

The number of layers can't be decided by the user yet but we are planning on letting the user take care of such details.

Note

Getting Started

To run the code you are required to use python3. I suggest following the below instruction to run the code.

virtualenv -p python3 .env
source .env/bin/activate       
pip install -r requirements.txt  
# Run the code
deactivate                       # Exit the virtual environment

Predicting the model

After activating the virtual envelop, run

python trainer.py -h

# Result
KBO Score Prediction Trainer

positional arguments:
  year             The year of data to train the model with
  train_size       The proportion of the training set to the test set
  model_name       The name of the model
  learn_rate       The learning rate
  sequence_length  Sequence length
  epoch            Training epoch
  drop_rate        Drop rate

optional arguments:
  -h, --help       show this help message and exit

to see what the user needs to provide.

The model takes in 7 inputs from the user.

  1. The year of the game to train the Deep Learning model with.
  2. The proportion of the training set to the test set in the raw dataset.
  3. The name of the model. (For saving purpose)
  4. The learning rate of the model.
  5. The number of previous games the model should look at for each game.
  6. The iteration of training.
  7. The drop rate.

Saving the trained model

This is done automatically when ran train.py. It is to call the specific model in the future when we want to predict the result. We are still working on the user interface of the prediction model.

Authors

Data scraping: Nate Namgun Kim [email protected]

Prediction model: Jay Junghee Ryu [email protected]