From ac3ec81b942f5b62c9abf94c5478777bf300a5f6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ana Rita Santos Date: Sat, 9 Jul 2022 10:49:05 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/2] add timestamps to video 33 --- videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md | 24 +++++++++++-- videos-list/README.md | 63 ---------------------------------- 2 files changed, 21 insertions(+), 66 deletions(-) diff --git a/videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md b/videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md index 911fa63..47896d6 100644 --- a/videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md +++ b/videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md @@ -13,9 +13,27 @@ Discourse Discussion https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-bayesian-workflow-building-a-covid-19-model-by-thomas-wiecki/6017 ## Timestamps -- 0:00 Start of event -- 0:00 -- 0:00 Help us add timestamps here: https://github.com/pymc-devs/video-timestamps +00:00 Speaker’s introduction +00:58 Key strengths of bayesian statistics +03:29 Agenda - what will you learn today +04:00 Dataset +05:24 Bayesian workflow +06:52 Plot the data for Germany cases +08:11 Instantiate model and set parameters for exponential regression +12:26 Run priori predictive check +14:24 Fit model +15:00 Mass matrix traceback and sampling issues +18:35 Proposing a better model - update parameters and likelihood distribution +20:54 Fit the new model and assess convergence +22:46 Run posterior predictive check +24:35 Prediction and Forecasting with pm.Data +25:21 Update intercept and slope parameters +26:14 Update model data using pm.Data container +27:24 Plot results and discuss model quality +28:35 Improve model by fitting a Logistic regression +31:49 Compare models +33:39 Fit the logistic regression to US data +34:20 Model main limitations and topic for next video Speaker bio: diff --git a/videos-list/README.md b/videos-list/README.md index c7b2d5f..39e86c7 100644 --- a/videos-list/README.md +++ b/videos-list/README.md @@ -3,66 +3,3 @@ - Number of videos: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=pymc+developers - PyMCon 2020 speaker info: https://pymc-devs.github.io/pymcon/speakers - Discourse info for PyCon2020: https://discourse.pymc.io/c/events/2020talks/15 - -## Template -- Event Description TEMPLATE: https://github.com/pymc-devs/video-timestamps/blob/main/videos-list/00_template.md - -## To Do -### Task 1: Add video descriptions -In the description section, include: -- Name of speaker -- Title of talk -- Event description -- Link to Discourse page for that session -- Timestamps (placeholder) -- Speaker bio -- Speaker social media links -- Link to PyMCon 2020 page -- Hashtags (Some standard hashtags to use: #bayesian #python #probabilistic #opensource) - -Videos that need **descriptions** (sorted by most recent). - -- [ ] 33 [Thomas Wiecki, Bayesian Workflow](https://youtu.be/ZxR3mw-Znzc) (@reshamas) -- [ ] 32 [Michael Osthege & Laura Helleckes, Calibr8](https://youtu.be/14Ca--VJKxI) -- [ ] 31 [Sayam Kumar, variational inference](https://youtu.be/IrudJ-dgfOw) -- [ ] 30 [Quan Nguyen, Bayesian ML](https://youtu.be/Y7U8jhKtdBA) -- [ ] 29 [Luciano Paz, Posterior prediction sampling](https://youtu.be/IhTfuO8wSDA) -- [ ] 28 [Evdoxia Taka, Bayesian visualization](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hadiSJRAJI) -- [ ] 27 [Cameron Davidson, Microbial cell counting](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oc6cgRwPEzU) -- [ ] 26 [Ali Akbar, Journey in ML](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ym9GRRZQZrQ) -- [ ] 25 [Chris Fonnesbeck, Keynote](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXODDVK7B-g) (@reshamas) -- [ ] 24 [Agustina Arroyuelo, Glycan 3D](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt8yEY6Fk80) -- [ ] 23 [Elizaveta Semenova, Toxicity prediction](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxydbmTfsk4) -- [ ] 22 [Nicoleta Spînu, Causal network](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nfcwZCLDAE) -- [ ] 21 [Max Sklar, What is probability?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv2TvH7r6W0) -- [ ] 20 [Alex Andorra, Multinomal regression](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYdIzSYwbSw) -- [ ] 19 [Matthijs Brouns, Hierarchical](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=appLxcMLT9Y) (@reshamas) -- [ ] 18 [Dan Foreman-Mackey, PyMC extension](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESyo2eeo-UM) -- [ ] 17 [Ravin Kumar, Welcome](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTLfeNyioR8&t=95s) -- [ ] 16 [Tushar Chandra, Pokemon GO](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0PiWcnEpiw) -- [ ] 15 [Ivan Tashchuk, Partial differential equations](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FC1umbf67o) -- [ ] 14 [Ruben Mak, Hierachial models](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeAJofHfUFk) -- [ ] 13 [Pedro and Osvaldo , Sequential Monte Carlo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv_SqScYdsg) -- [ ] 12 [Michael Johns, Mixed Modeling](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UznM_-_760Y) (@reshamas) -- [ ] 11 [Mo Akhshik, Novel bayesian models](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx8S7bfJpDA) -- [ ] 10 [Rob Zinkov, Model checking](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfqPGGCpY6I) -- [ ] 09 [Junpeng Lao, Missing multivariate](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ3XefApED0) -- [ ] 08 [Vincent Warmerdam, Priors](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfcCXlxkBb0) -- [ ] 07 [Thomas Wiecki, Bayesian workflow part 2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DCkJkMji0U) -- [ ] 06 [Allen Downey, Bayesian zig zag](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYS3oDhLsP0) -- [ ] 05 [Dario and Hessam, Models in chemistry](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8n8XD-cB90) -- [ ] 04 [Aki Vehrati, Inference diagnostics](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKPm6txxxQM) -- [ ] 03 [Viola Priesemann, SARS-COV-2 spread inferring](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btHkSlePV5Q) -- [ ] 02 [Tim D, Mikkel L and Grigorios M, MLDA multilevel sampler](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvsGyvAElLY) -- [x] 01 [Interviews with PyMC Team members + Community (Tidelift)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cP_fD5AlVYw) (done by @reshamas) - - -#### Task 2: Create thumbnails in Canva -Thumbnails should show: -- Name of speaker -- Title of talk -- PyMCon logo -- Speaker info: https://pymc-devs.github.io/pymcon/speakers - -#### Task 3: Schedule social media posts -Once the thumbnails have been updated, we will schedule them as social media posts on both Twitter and LinkedIn. From 8c0503dd44867ea8d2a3e82c0d2d67f627c2fb4e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Ana Rita Santos <59372321+AnaRita93@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sat, 9 Jul 2022 15:46:05 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 2/2] Update videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md Co-authored-by: Thomas Wiecki --- videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md b/videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md index 47896d6..54ebe2e 100644 --- a/videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md +++ b/videos-list/33-thomas_part1.md @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ https://discourse.pymc.io/t/the-bayesian-workflow-building-a-covid-19-model-by-t 05:24 Bayesian workflow 06:52 Plot the data for Germany cases 08:11 Instantiate model and set parameters for exponential regression -12:26 Run priori predictive check +12:26 Run prior predictive check 14:24 Fit model 15:00 Mass matrix traceback and sampling issues 18:35 Proposing a better model - update parameters and likelihood distribution