index.Rmd

--- 
date: "`r Sys.Date()`"
site: bookdown::bookdown_site 
---
# Project Biden
<p>
Project Biden is looking at the approval ratings since the beginning of the first term in 2021. The polls used are sourced from *538.com*. 
<p/> 

## Biden approval chart 
<p>
The chart uses polling from <code>538.com</code> calculated to a 7-day rolling average and fit the trend lines with **Loess** regression curves with a span of <code>0.1</code>.
<p/>

```{r biden_approval,echo = FALSE, results = 'hide', warning = FALSE,message=FALSE,fig.dpi=1080, fig.height=5,fig.width=9,fig.align='center',fig.cap="President Biden Approval chart"}  

library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr) 
library(zoo) 
library(lubridate)
library(tidyverse) 
library(readxl)
buden_ <- read_excel("~/buden_.xltx", sheet = "clean") 
buden_$end_date<-mdy(buden_$end_date)

biden<-buden_%>%
  mutate(app_7d = rollmeanr(share, k=7, fill=NA)) 
  
ggplot(biden, mapping = aes(x=end_date, y=app_7d,color=approval))+
  geom_point(alpha=1/10,size=5) +
  geom_smooth(method = 'loess', formula = 'y~x',span=0.1, se=FALSE, lwd=2)+
  scale_colour_manual(values = c('tomato','grey','black'))+
  labs(title = 'Approve the job President Biden is doing?',caption = "sources:538.com\njamesstats.github.io/blog",    x='',
       y='%Percentage%', colour=' ')+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(legend.position = 'bottom') +
  theme(plot.title = element_text(face = "bold"),
        plot.caption = element_text(face = 'italic'),axis.text = element_text(face = 'bold'))
    

```

## Methodology used by pollsters
<p>
Majority of the polls are conducted through the live phone and the others are a mix of live phone,online panel and text based. 
<p/> 

```{r polls_method,echo = FALSE, results = 'hide', warning = FALSE,message=FALSE,fig.dpi=1080,  fig.height=5,fig.width=8,fig.align='center',fig.cap="The Different ways pollsters conduct their polls"}  

library(ggplot2)
library(lubridate)
library(tidyverse) 
library(readxl)
buden_ <- read_excel("~/buden_.xltx", sheet = "clean") 
buden_$end_date<-mdy(buden_$end_date) 

ggplot(biden, mapping = aes(x=end_date, y=app_7d,color=approval))+
  geom_point(alpha=1/10,size=5) +
  geom_smooth(method = 'loess', formula = 'y~x',span=1, se=FALSE, lwd=2)+
  scale_colour_manual(values = c('tomato','grey','black'))+
  labs(title = 'How the polls are conducted',caption = "sources:538.com\njamesstats.github.io/blog",       x='',
       y='%Percentage%', colour=' ')+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(legend.position = 'bottom') +
  theme(plot.title = element_text(face = "bold"),
        plot.caption = element_text(face = 'italic'),axis.text = element_text(face = 'bold')) +
  facet_wrap(~methodology)  
```

## A-list pollsters
<p>
A comparison of the A-list/rated pollsters by **538.com** who have conducted nation polls on President Biden on how they stack against each other. Marist Polls seems to be more bullish on Biden than the others.  
<p/>

```{r A_polls,echo = FALSE, results = 'hide', warning = FALSE,message=FALSE,fig.dpi=1080, fig.height=5,fig.width=8,fig.align='center',fig.cap="Individual results from the pollsters"}  

library(ggplot2)
library(lubridate)
library(tidyverse) 
library(readxl)
buden_ <- read_excel("~/buden_.xltx", sheet = "clean") 
buden_$end_date<-mdy(buden_$end_date) 

ggplot(biden, mapping = aes(x=end_date, y=app_7d,color=approval))+
  geom_point(alpha=1/10,size=5) +
  geom_smooth(method = 'loess', formula = 'y~x',span=1, se=FALSE, lwd=2)+
  scale_colour_manual(values = c('tomato','grey','black'))+
  labs(title = 'Pollsters and their polls',x='',caption = "sources:538.com\njamesstats.github.io/blog",
       y='%Percentage%', colour=' ')+
  theme_bw()+
  theme(legend.position = 'bottom') +
  theme(plot.title = element_text(face = "bold"),
        plot.caption = element_text(face = 'italic'),axis.text = element_text(face = 'bold')) +
  facet_wrap(~pollster)  
```