This folder contains the latest hospitalisation data, summarised nowcasts from a a range of models, nowcasts formatted for submission to the nowcasting hub, and a range of evaluation and diagnostic information. The table below summaries the contents of each folder.
| Folder | Purpose |
|---|---|
diagnostics |
Contains model fitting diagnostics and summary information. This includes informationn on models with high Rhats (indicating issues with convergence), models with high numbers of divergent transitions (indicating issues exploring the posterior distribution and potentially resulting in biased estimates), and run time for each model and nowcast date (aggregated across age groups). A data file containing diagnostics for all models is also provided. |
nowcasts/daily |
Contains summarised daily nowcasts for all models considered separated by date of nowcast. Nowcasts are stored in long format. |
nowcasts/seven_day |
Contains summrised seven day nowcasts for all models considered separated by date of nowcast. These are simply the posterior samples from the daily nowcast aggregated using a 7-day rolling sum. Nowcasts are stored in long format. |
nowcasts/submission/independent |
Contains nowcasts from the independent age group model formatted for submission to the nowcasting hub. Nowcasts are stored by date of nowcast and available for all locations and age groups considered by the nowcasting hub (Germany nationally by age group and overall by state level). A metadata file (metadata-epiforecasts-independent.txt) is provided that gives more details on the nowcasts in this folder. |
nowcasts/submission/hierarchical |
Contains nowcasts from the hierarchical age group model formatted for submission to the nowcasting hub. Nowcasts are stored by date of nowcast and available for Germany nationally by age group but not at the state level. A metadata file (metadata-epiforecasts-hierarchical.txt) is provided that gives more details on the nowcasts in this folder. |
observations |
Contains the latest observed COVID-19 hospitalisations in Germany by date of report and date of positive test. Observations are provided on a daily basis and on for a 7-day rolling window. This data is originally sourced from the RKI but is downloaded from the nowcasting hub where negative reports are corrected by distributing them backwards in time. |
scores |
Contains summarised scores for the nowcasts summarised in the nowcasts folder using the daily data in the observations folder. Proper scoring rules are used on the natural scale and on the log scale (representing absolute and relative measures). Each data set in the folder is aggregated over a different variable with this being indicated using the files name. See the scoringutils package for further scoring details. For a presentation of these scores see the real time report. |