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Ethereum: Mass Validator Exodus

Jupyter Notebook modelling of a mass exodus event of Ethereum validators as per the Ethereum Consensus Specs.

The following situations are examining:

  • Maximum rate of withdrawls for a given churn limit
  • Maximum rate of withdrawls for an amount of ether staked
  • Time to pass a blockage in withdrawal queue based on exiting network share (matched by new deposits)
  • Time to pass a blockage in withdrawal queue based on exiting network share (unmatched by new deposits)

Unmatched Exodus

Analysis Limitations

  • The analysis was only performed with daily step intervals, not per block.
  • The analysis looks at withdrawals rather than exits.
  • The analysis does not account for the MIN_VALIDATOR_WITHDRAWABILITY_DELAY.
  • The analysis only looks at full withdrawals and considers all exits to be of size = MAX_EFFECTIVE_BALANCE (32).