diff --git a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/README.md b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/README.md index 17b0c107a..b24f39ab0 100644 --- a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/README.md +++ b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/README.md @@ -2,13 +2,13 @@ Contained within the gibraltar_example/ directory, these scripts run simulations in which intervention is active or inactive in Gibraltar. Output graphs are contained within the gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/ directory. Both simulations are run using the same input file, considering the actual population set-up in Gibraltar. ## Without Intervention -The resulting infection curve shows the progression of the disease when the intervention is absent. The infection peak occurs around Day 25 with roughly 17k infected individuals. After the simulation there are roughly equal numbers of susceptible and infected individuals. +The resulting infection curve shows the progression of the disease when the intervention is absent. The infection peak occurs around Day 25 with roughly 15k infected individuals. Nearly all of the population is recovered in 90 days, and a small proportion of the population are susceptible. ![without intervention.pt](./simulation_outputs/without_intervention/simulation_flow_SIR_plot.png) ## With Intervention The intervention conducted in our simulation is in line with the real instructions during the pandemic (https://www.gibraltar.gov.gi/press/covid-19-press-releases?year=2020&np=6). All interventions (i.e. case isolation, place closure, household quarantine, social distancing) start from the first day of the simulation, and most of them last for the entire simulation, except place closure, which ends at Day 74. 90% of the symptomatic individuals are self isolated, 75% of the households are compliant with household quarantine, and all forms of schools are closed during this time. These interventions affect the house, place and spatial effectiveness to different extents, and the exact values are derived from CovidSim. -The infection peak occurs around 25 days later than without the intervention, and the number of infected individuals is below 12.5k. As a result, there are far more susceptible individuals in the intervention case, which still has almost 17.5k after the simulation. +The infection peak occurs around 15 days later than without the intervention, and the number of infected individuals is below 7.5k. As a result, there are far more susceptible individuals in the intervention case, which still has almost 10k after the simulation. ![with intervention.pt](./simulation_outputs/with_intervention/simulation_flow_SIR_plot.png) diff --git a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/age_stratify.png b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/age_stratify.png index 55c9a350b..1f39aff8e 100644 Binary files a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/age_stratify.png and b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/age_stratify.png differ diff --git a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/gibraltar_weeky_cases.csv b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/gibraltar_weeky_cases.csv index 0110c6c80..5d3c412d3 100644 --- a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/gibraltar_weeky_cases.csv +++ b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/gibraltar_weeky_cases.csv @@ -1,14 +1,14 @@ dates,0-10,10-20,20-30,30-40,40-50,50-60,60-70,70-80,80-90 -03-18,0.21428571428571427,4.367393206840385,13.336966034201925,22.490397403210718,21.949396004420606,30.638379720916625,19.138379720916625,10.46957282736154,12.449396004420608 -03-25,2.571428571428571,14.05702467624465,38.0627971069809,64.89016044498939,90.8507790248948,94.42733177713063,73.53846663914943,37.277083318287374,47.27675735434608 -04-01,11.582002797580222,36.4253895124474,91.18326733894376,154.000056053184,251.41908173338336,226.28738842891494,181.9699518623623,123.83060001506256,112.07466335980376 -04-08,25.220058642042723,84.67684695649096,174.98214716065513,361.92647414281515,561.7705643655621,547.7932707791279,395.04305288712095,295.73392331213694,268.50296298893903 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+04-29,53.34818801326182,136.77487303152571,329.76629781907036,661.1767475909853,1056.230316066566,998.145393311287,831.1462509456024,615.7172955118227,646.2288332161963 +05-06,43.08265055048847,106.14609590739838,246.97319062690354,474.96299583336923,818.21677010391,862.6023875309764,640.5078194458803,486.0202776966399,492.3752037063471 +05-13,30.250809691135306,65.75723037180056,150.18197044146916,340.151598228569,533.0177484042275,569.0529689229285,459.01898427831054,344.5679712773189,362.7322925977931 +05-20,19.296288511865935,32.28123686377376,90.51764146687535,189.45905326273578,330.4654680785561,311.8485611834177,243.52022730949247,214.33059434902594,259.30048657965483 +05-27,8.729661238832005,12.33184085935316,37.05189950139589,98.05351719379593,195.56473509728565,176.48273200149296,116.03301649440088,110.74697535010793,150.3491508950589 +06-03,4.428571428571428,9.219734765588601,17.035876223941347,43.490720484431634,96.95581290772812,80.0525452662211,63.067273833092365,42.43434276586202,83.18482480318548 +06-10,1.857142857142857,3.1479823177059068,7.938821778268956,21.551251649083486,53.414165247092036,32.852664441160826,22.51089770498917,20.005124677828007,43.9756673452772 diff --git a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/simulation_flow_SIR_plot.png b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/simulation_flow_SIR_plot.png index 1ae64eb0f..181a6d1ac 100644 Binary files a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/simulation_flow_SIR_plot.png and b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/with_intervention/simulation_flow_SIR_plot.png differ diff --git a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/without_intervention/age_stratify.png b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/without_intervention/age_stratify.png index 6435dcb09..c3b00e7da 100644 Binary files a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/without_intervention/age_stratify.png and b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/without_intervention/age_stratify.png differ diff --git a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/without_intervention/gibraltar_weeky_cases.csv b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/without_intervention/gibraltar_weeky_cases.csv index 65fa6d533..97200c878 100644 --- a/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/without_intervention/gibraltar_weeky_cases.csv +++ b/python_examples/gibraltar_example/simulation_outputs/without_intervention/gibraltar_weeky_cases.csv @@ -1,14 +1,14 @@ dates,0-10,10-20,20-30,30-40,40-50,50-60,60-70,70-80,80-90 -03-18,0.505125174848764,7.010250349697527,16.56662727303393,29.138379621512474,29.562149851093412,36.276435565379124,21.61787902152157,12.826715684504396,17.97502187866443 -03-25,16.08745184888311,43.25113356758943,84.77902657701212,184.1656813288275,275.97578153913236,241.61831570017276,183.17145405777623,137.5967867218064,149.5058263964331 -04-01,78.74859940437365,181.42479860795638,468.06523528443216,893.1394228282375,1295.8231277404698,1256.9323126836857,971.8918467326275,726.8029236636604,795.722590536094 -04-08,162.77616853734222,371.7797880267548,926.4084678728636,1752.8044122966019,2614.871641226906,2609.83699063842,1990.9798874156454,1524.8890230760367,1777.0322315201365 -04-15,152.56571249208878,382.7509233879697,913.8372487852257,1746.5261825293219,2692.3615366536956,2666.853427416228,2211.5105169149756,1630.7970353663295,2045.0631660091321 -04-22,139.7280987049786,326.7223826256388,782.882346881085,1512.074734738358,2294.630626203493,2224.9182765908336,1837.297307463978,1403.0636990819216,1627.4807466125392 -04-29,130.99811358969245,304.7009102968814,700.7500077123872,1332.2312956482604,2095.885157532863,1983.087949071036,1463.6668645465986,1097.9467523364758,1181.4198691168522 -05-06,126.41611079211225,296.81781768904057,676.5049718436462,1236.6210778534823,1914.6100226423162,1786.5622734060698,1302.9160646964745,890.4031662879183,999.8804438702842 -05-13,120.23737742531375,296.30244216449427,676.7964590571175,1234.081372258721,1930.3192432111032,1741.3553862642732,1220.8978339155744,826.9313875475777,936.5092285491271 -05-20,115.20630249976705,273.73711039727687,680.6561360774762,1224.0153927385954,1898.6087875634664,1714.2205119383182,1188.3613110321705,839.669680648474,873.1712957563661 -05-27,122.12559520800332,290.11923137575525,642.3643249875507,1172.0634053249253,1829.193267477037,1605.9645209197458,1153.4208706668642,777.1174564753908,812.5950676758176 -06-03,114.93661149150729,284.58238352245155,645.8163120036044,1175.366438692123,1826.1862563889013,1653.3700569886857,1148.7267617755192,800.8163669633427,862.0486143430043 -06-10,105.43116244020442,285.6278623431822,644.5655023124691,1233.787350882034,1838.0165349132094,1631.7108528907283,1156.494890548138,783.6722148116899,835.4269084357667 +03-18,1.0205006993950556,6.826715684504396,19.541325275244233,37.363239661353994,35.54677432654712,33.65888042031168,23.725183816891487,16.015699401000415,16.72998511528613 +03-25,17.80718661447171,42.114049352489296,115.47955614902216,201.51419361616007,306.32942009475937,254.92900741139354,210.12084916755947,146.8178163967866,154.19001000738427 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