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\pagenumbering{gobble}

Figure S1. Parameters can be estimated by Maximum Likelihood

While the full posterior distribution can be sampled using various bayesian machinery, this is not necessary for obtaining point estimates of $\mu$ and $\phi$. A maximum likelihood estimate of each can be calculated by rearranging eq. 4 and fitting a Beta distribution to the result:

Parameters can be estimated by Maximum Likelihood. The maximum likelihood estimate of $p$ is compared to 20 samples from the posterior distribution of the flexible links model. The empirical distribution of $p$, obtained from all food webs archived on the mangal.io database, is also included.{#fig:penciltrick}

We include this result because ecologists may wish to apply our methods for estimating $L$, $Co$ or $L/S$ without fitting a Bayesian posterior of their own. This approach loses information about the sample size of webs, but nevertheless provides a close match to both the empirical data and the bayesian posterior.

parameter MLE estimate MAP estimate
$\mu$ 0.087 0.086 ± 0.0037
$\phi$ 21.0 24.3 ± 2.4