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Development of Climate Analogs for Major Canadian Cities

Project 706400 of Ouranos for the CCCS.

This repo contains a shareable version of most code used to generate the input data used in the prototype dashboard, as well as the dashboard itself.

The code has changed a lot during the project and it may happen that the public data was generated with an older version of what is here. For the same reason, the environment file given here reflects the state of my conda environment at the moment of creating this repo and some packages may have different versions than when the data was generated.

Link to Pavics site: https://pavics.ouranos.ca/analogues_spatiaux/Dashboard Link to CCDP staging: https://app-spatial-analogs-staging.climatedata.ca/analogs/Dashboard

Structure

Configuration

Importing an idea from the internal scenario codebase of Ouranos (xscen), a lot of customizable parameters for each script actually lie in configuration files (config.yml and paths.yml). The goal was to uncouple the algorithms from the parameters allowing for the building of "generic" workflows which can be customized without touching the python script.

The configuration reader is in config.py.

Population density map and masks

As the first task done for this project and its run-and-forget aspect, the code for this part is not well organized. It lives in Masques.ipynb, a notebook one should NOT try to run in its entirety. See the header of the notebook for more info.

This notebook also transforms the list of cities (the excel sheet) into a geojson and then into a netCDF.

CMIP6 data

The first part of the Simulations CMIP6.ipynb notebook generates the ESM catalogs needed by extract_cmip6.py to actually download and extract the data.

The PCA+KKZ is further done in another section of Simulations CMIP6.ipynb. Once the list of realization is generated, it needs to be added to config.yml.

Bias-adjustment / indices

Daily bias-adjustment is done with bias_adjust_daily.py. Then calc_indices.py can compute the climate indices. bias_adjust_annual.py does the second bias-adjustment, if needed. calc_indices.py is also the one to compute the indices on the reference data. The climate indices are defined in analog.yml, with french translations in analog.fr.json.

One can use fig_indices_comp.py to plot all indices, in order to visually inspect them compared to the reference ones. It also splits the Zarr files into netCDFs, which is what it stored on PAVICS.

Approximate distributions and self-analogy

analog_quantiles.py performs the Monte-Carlo analysis to approximate the dissimilarity score distributions, which it saves into a netCDF file.

compute_selfanalogy.py computes the best analogs for each index, using the 1991-2020 target period. Results were analyzed in another notebook, not present in this repo.

Notebook and dashboard

The final products are Dashboard.ipynb and Step_by_step.ipynb. They are both independent from the rest of the code in this repo, and rely on data available through PAVICS.

The visualization are different between the two versions. First of all, plotting with matplotlib ("Step_by_step") and holoviews/bokeh ("Dashboard") assurely gives different results, but the Dashboard has been subject to some more iterations. The analog finding code, however, should be identical.

A lot more explanations are given in the step by step notebook.

Development

In order to package a Docker container of the Climate Analogs app, make sure you add the required dependencies to requirements_minimal.txt. In contrast to requirements.txt, requirements_minimal.txt contains the strict minimal dependencies that the app needs. Then, run these commands to build and run the container:

make build-local
make run-local