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[FEAT] Add non-negative reconciliation heuristic for MinTraceSparse #284

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merged 7 commits into from
Oct 15, 2024
Merged

[FEAT] Add non-negative reconciliation heuristic for MinTraceSparse #284

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8cd41c0
ENH: :sparkles: Add sparse non-negative reconciliation heuristic.
christophertitchen Sep 3, 2024
59a2b6b
BUG: :bug: Remove legacy absolute tolerance for BiCGSTAB convergence.
christophertitchen Sep 3, 2024
73355ce
TST: :white_check_mark: Add tests for sparse MinT.
christophertitchen Sep 3, 2024
a037eb9
Merge branch 'main' into enh/nn-heuristic
elephaint Sep 12, 2024
77c2e67
Merge branch 'main' into enh/nn-heuristic
christophertitchen Oct 8, 2024
a7a81ba
Merge branch 'main' into enh/nn-heuristic
elephaint Oct 15, 2024
b9dd9a5
fix_linting
elephaint Oct 15, 2024
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2 changes: 2 additions & 0 deletions hierarchicalforecast/_modidx.py
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -106,6 +106,8 @@
'hierarchicalforecast/methods.py'),
'hierarchicalforecast.methods.MinTraceSparse._get_PW_matrices': ( 'methods.html#mintracesparse._get_pw_matrices',
'hierarchicalforecast/methods.py'),
'hierarchicalforecast.methods.MinTraceSparse.fit': ( 'methods.html#mintracesparse.fit',
'hierarchicalforecast/methods.py'),
'hierarchicalforecast.methods.OptimalCombination': ( 'methods.html#optimalcombination',
'hierarchicalforecast/methods.py'),
'hierarchicalforecast.methods.OptimalCombination.__init__': ( 'methods.html#optimalcombination.__init__',
Expand Down
78 changes: 69 additions & 9 deletions hierarchicalforecast/methods.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -1150,11 +1150,6 @@ def _get_PW_matrices(
"Only the methods with diagonal W are supported as sparse operations"
)

if self.nonnegative:
raise NotImplementedError(
"Non-negative MinT is currently not implemented as sparse"
)

S = sparse.csr_matrix(S)

if self.method in res_methods and y_insample is None and y_hat_insample is None:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1213,7 +1208,7 @@ def get_P_action(y):
(b.size, b.size), matvec=lambda v: R @ (S @ v)
)

x_tilde, exit_code = sparse.linalg.bicgstab(A, b, atol="legacy")
x_tilde, exit_code = sparse.linalg.bicgstab(A, b)
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return x_tilde

Expand All @@ -1224,7 +1219,72 @@ def get_P_action(y):

return P, W

# %% ../nbs/methods.ipynb 55
def fit(self,
S: sparse.csr_matrix,
y_hat: np.ndarray,
y_insample: Optional[np.ndarray] = None,
y_hat_insample: Optional[np.ndarray] = None,
sigmah: Optional[np.ndarray] = None,
intervals_method: Optional[str] = None,
num_samples: Optional[int] = None,
seed: Optional[int] = None,
tags: Optional[Dict[str, np.ndarray]] = None,
idx_bottom: Optional[np.ndarray] = None):
# Clip the base forecasts if required to align them with their use in practice.
if self.nonnegative:
self.y_hat = np.clip(y_hat, 0, None)
else:
self.y_hat = y_hat
# Get the reconciliation matrices.
self.P, self.W = self._get_PW_matrices(
S=S,
y_hat=self.y_hat,
y_insample=y_insample,
y_hat_insample=y_hat_insample,
idx_bottom=idx_bottom,
)

if self.nonnegative:
# Get the number of leaf nodes.
_, n_bottom = S.shape
# Although it is now sufficient to ensure that all of the entries in P are
# positive, as it is implemented as a linear operator for the iterative
# method to solve the sparse linear system, we need to reconcile to find
# if any of the coherent bottom level point forecasts are negative.
y_tilde = self._reconcile(
S=S, P=self.P, y_hat=self.y_hat, level=None, sampler=None
)["mean"][-n_bottom:]
# Find if any of the forecasts are negative.
if np.any(y_tilde < 0):
# Clip the negative forecasts.
y_tilde = np.clip(y_tilde, 0, None)
# Force non-negative coherence by overwriting the base forecasts with
# the aggregated, clipped bottom level forecasts.
self.y_hat = S @ y_tilde
# Overwrite the attributes for the P and W matrices with those for
# bottom-up reconciliation to force projection onto the non-negative
# coherent subspace.
self.P, self.W = BottomUpSparse()._get_PW_matrices(S=S, idx_bottom=None)

# Get the sampler for probabilistic reconciliation.
self.sampler = self._get_sampler(
S=S,
P=self.P,
W=self.W,
y_hat=self.y_hat,
y_insample=y_insample,
y_hat_insample=y_hat_insample,
sigmah=sigmah,
intervals_method=intervals_method,
num_samples=num_samples,
seed=seed,
tags=tags,
)
# Set the instance as fitted.
self.fitted = True
return self

# %% ../nbs/methods.ipynb 56
class OptimalCombination(MinTrace):
"""Optimal Combination Reconciliation Class.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1258,7 +1318,7 @@ def __init__(self,
super().__init__(method=method, nonnegative=nonnegative, num_threads=num_threads)
self.insample = False

# %% ../nbs/methods.ipynb 64
# %% ../nbs/methods.ipynb 65
@njit
def lasso(X: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray,
lambda_reg: float, max_iters: int = 1_000,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1290,7 +1350,7 @@ def lasso(X: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray,
#print(it)
return beta

# %% ../nbs/methods.ipynb 65
# %% ../nbs/methods.ipynb 66
class ERM(HReconciler):
"""Optimal Combination Reconciliation Class.

Expand Down
96 changes: 89 additions & 7 deletions nbs/methods.ipynb
View file
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -1762,11 +1762,6 @@
" \"Only the methods with diagonal W are supported as sparse operations\"\n",
" )\n",
"\n",
" if self.nonnegative:\n",
" raise NotImplementedError(\n",
" \"Non-negative MinT is currently not implemented as sparse\"\n",
" )\n",
"\n",
" S = sparse.csr_matrix(S)\n",
"\n",
" if self.method in res_methods and y_insample is None and y_hat_insample is None:\n",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1825,7 +1820,7 @@
" (b.size, b.size), matvec=lambda v: R @ (S @ v)\n",
" )\n",
"\n",
" x_tilde, exit_code = sparse.linalg.bicgstab(A, b, atol=\"legacy\")\n",
" x_tilde, exit_code = sparse.linalg.bicgstab(A, b)\n",
"\n",
" return x_tilde\n",
"\n",
Expand All @@ -1834,7 +1829,72 @@
" )\n",
" W = sparse.spdiags(W_diag, 0, W_diag.size, W_diag.size)\n",
"\n",
" return P, W"
" return P, W\n",
"\n",
" def fit(self,\n",
" S: sparse.csr_matrix,\n",
" y_hat: np.ndarray,\n",
" y_insample: Optional[np.ndarray] = None,\n",
" y_hat_insample: Optional[np.ndarray] = None,\n",
" sigmah: Optional[np.ndarray] = None,\n",
" intervals_method: Optional[str] = None,\n",
" num_samples: Optional[int] = None,\n",
" seed: Optional[int] = None, \n",
" tags: Optional[Dict[str, np.ndarray]] = None,\n",
" idx_bottom: Optional[np.ndarray] = None):\n",
" # Clip the base forecasts if required to align them with their use in practice.\n",
" if self.nonnegative:\n",
" self.y_hat = np.clip(y_hat, 0, None)\n",
" else:\n",
" self.y_hat = y_hat\n",
" # Get the reconciliation matrices.\n",
" self.P, self.W = self._get_PW_matrices(\n",
" S=S, \n",
" y_hat=self.y_hat, \n",
" y_insample=y_insample, \n",
" y_hat_insample=y_hat_insample, \n",
" idx_bottom=idx_bottom,\n",
" )\n",
"\n",
" if self.nonnegative:\n",
" # Get the number of leaf nodes.\n",
" _, n_bottom = S.shape\n",
" # Although it is now sufficient to ensure that all of the entries in P are \n",
" # positive, as it is implemented as a linear operator for the iterative \n",
" # method to solve the sparse linear system, we need to reconcile to find \n",
" # if any of the coherent bottom level point forecasts are negative.\n",
" y_tilde = self._reconcile(\n",
" S=S, P=self.P, y_hat=self.y_hat, level=None, sampler=None\n",
" )[\"mean\"][-n_bottom:]\n",
" # Find if any of the forecasts are negative.\n",
" if np.any(y_tilde < 0):\n",
" # Clip the negative forecasts.\n",
" y_tilde = np.clip(y_tilde, 0, None)\n",
" # Force non-negative coherence by overwriting the base forecasts with \n",
" # the aggregated, clipped bottom level forecasts.\n",
" self.y_hat = S @ y_tilde\n",
" # Overwrite the attributes for the P and W matrices with those for \n",
" # bottom-up reconciliation to force projection onto the non-negative \n",
" # coherent subspace.\n",
" self.P, self.W = BottomUpSparse()._get_PW_matrices(S=S, idx_bottom=None) \n",
"\n",
" # Get the sampler for probabilistic reconciliation.\n",
" self.sampler = self._get_sampler(\n",
" S=S,\n",
" P=self.P,\n",
" W=self.W,\n",
" y_hat=self.y_hat,\n",
" y_insample=y_insample,\n",
" y_hat_insample=y_hat_insample,\n",
" sigmah=sigmah,\n",
" intervals_method=intervals_method,\n",
" num_samples=num_samples,\n",
" seed=seed,\n",
" tags=tags,\n",
" )\n",
" # Set the instance as fitted.\n",
" self.fitted = True\n",
" return self"
]
},
{
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1977,6 +2037,28 @@
" )"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"#| hide\n",
"for method in [\"ols\", \"wls_struct\"]:\n",
" for nonnegative in [False, True]:\n",
" cls_min_trace = MinTraceSparse(method=method, nonnegative=nonnegative)\n",
" test_close(\n",
" cls_min_trace(\n",
" S=S,\n",
" y_hat=S @ y_hat_bottom,\n",
" y_insample=S @ y_bottom,\n",
" y_hat_insample=S @ y_hat_bottom_insample,\n",
" idx_bottom=idx_bottom if nonnegative else None,\n",
" )[\"mean\"],\n",
" S @ y_hat_bottom,\n",
" )"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
Expand Down