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Lecture_03_Define_Decision.Rmd
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Lecture_03_Define_Decision.Rmd
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## Lecture 3: Defining a Decision {#define_decision}
<!-- use the {#define_decision} syntax to create a label that can be referenced with [Define decision](#define_decision) -->
{width=1in}
{width=3in}
{width=1in}
<!-- Neuman and Morgenstern etc. -->
The following videos cover some of the challenges that researchers and agricultural development experts face when attempting to define decisions. Please watch the videos and answer the questions that follow.
### Defining Decisions Part 1
<!--  -->
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pPIs7MwgMe0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
```{r question-define-decision-part-01-01, echo=FALSE}
question("Who do you think came up with these topics?",
answer("Local government."),
answer("Development NGO."),
answer("Researchers.", correct = TRUE),
answer("Farmers."),
incorrect = "Watch [the video](https://youtu.be/pPIs7MwgMe0) and try again.",
allow_retry = TRUE
)
```
```{r question-define-decision-part-01-02, echo=FALSE}
question("What is missing?",
answer("Decision-maker", correct = TRUE),
answer("Concrete options", correct = TRUE),
answer("Relevant issue in agricultural development"),
answer("Clear context", correct = TRUE),
incorrect = "Watch [the video](https://youtu.be/pPIs7MwgMe0) and try again.",
allow_retry = TRUE
)
```
### Defining Decisions Part 2
<!--  -->
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4vlwELJwHYg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Think about the following questions and jot down your thoughts.
- **Does decision analysis make sense without involving a decision-maker?**
- **What can this achieve, and what shouldn't we expect from it?**
### Defining Decisions Part 3
<!--  -->
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5ZTd73gcL-0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
```{r question-define-decision-part-03-01, echo=FALSE}
question("Which aspects of research should you pay attention to, if you want to maximize the *credibility* of your research?",
answer("Relationship with stakeholders"),
answer("Robust statistics", correct = TRUE),
answer("Inclusive, participatory research"),
answer("Clear experimental design", correct = TRUE),
answer("Alignment with policies and plans"),
answer("Choices actually considered by local actors"),
incorrect = "Watch [the video](https://youtu.be/pPIs7MwgMe0) and try again.",
allow_retry = TRUE
)
```
```{r question-define-decision-part-03-02, echo=FALSE}
question("Which aspects of research should you pay attention to, if you want to maximize the *salience* of your research?",
answer("Relationship with stakeholders"),
answer("Robust statistics"),
answer("Inclusive, participatory research", correct = TRUE),
answer("Clear experimental design"),
answer("Alignment with policies and plans", correct = TRUE),
answer("Choices actually considered by local actors", correct = TRUE),
incorrect = "Watch [the video](https://youtu.be/pPIs7MwgMe0) and try again.",
allow_retry = TRUE
)
```
```{r question-define-decision-part-03-03, echo=FALSE}
question("Which aspects of research should you pay attention to, if you want to maximize the *legitimacy* of your research?",
answer("Relationship with stakeholders", correct = TRUE),
answer("Robust statistics"),
answer("Inclusive, participatory research"),
answer("Involvement of local leaders", correct = TRUE),
answer("Clear experimental design"),
answer("Alignment with policies and plans"),
answer("Choices actually considered by local actors"),
incorrect = "Watch [the video](https://youtu.be/pPIs7MwgMe0) and try again.",
allow_retry = TRUE
)
```
Think of challenges you may encounter when trying to do *credible*, *salient* and *legitimate* research (all of which decision analysts should aim to achieve).
### Quality Decision Making
This video outlines the background for quality decision making, closely following @howard_foundations_2015. At the end of the video please take some time to sketch out some thoughts about a decision that you will be working on for the experiential part of this course. You can find the slides for the first three parts of the lecture here.
- **Define the decision-maker**: The person, organization or group that will be faced with choices.
- **Define the decision choice and alternatives**: from which to choose
- **Define the preferences**: clarify how the decision-makers consider the different possible consequences and outcomes of the decision. These can take many forms, i.e. they can be personal, societal or cultural values.
- **Define the sources of Information**: What sources of information will you access to gather a causal understanding of the decision impact pathway. Be explicit about where you will reach out, i.e. specific farmers, literature etc.
<!--  -->
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/r_BbXfMbfe0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
```{r question-quality-decision, echo=FALSE}
question("The criteria for decision quality include:",
answer("Large datasets with empirical evidence and measurements of expected outcomes."),
answer("Preferences about decision outcomes.", correct = TRUE),
answer("Certainty about what the decision outcome will be."),
answer("Clear framing of decision alternatives.", correct = TRUE),
incorrect = "Watch [the video](https://youtu.be/r_BbXfMbfe0) and try again.",
allow_retry = TRUE
)
```
### Group discussion reading:
This week you will all read @howard_foundations_2015 (Chapter 1. Introduction to Quality Decision Making). One group will lead a discussion on the reading.
```{r question-howard, echo=FALSE}
question("According to the Howard and Abbas reading, which of the following represents a decision?",
answer("I have decided that I do not like vanilla ice cream."),
answer("I have decided that the stock market will go up."),
answer("I have decided to ace the test."),
answer("I have decided to diet, and I have thrown away the ice cream in the freezer.", correct = TRUE),
incorrect = "Look at page 31 'What is a Decision' and try again.",
allow_retry = TRUE
)
```
### Reading for this lecture
- Howard, Ronald A., and Ali E. Abbas. Foundations of Decision Analysis. NY, NY: Prentice Hall, 2015.
Bonus reading by @shepherd_development_2015.
- Shepherd, Keith, Douglas Hubbard, Norman Fenton, Karl Claxton, Eike Luedeling, and Jan de Leeuw. “Development Goals Should Enable Decision-Making.” Nature 523, no. 7559 (2015): 152–54.